Cheap air travel must end if the airline industry is to meet its pledge to cap its greenhouse gas emissions, a study has found.
Ticket prices must rise by at least 1.4% a year even if the industry invests heavily in more efficient aircraft and introduces lower-carbon fuels.
The average fare paid by UK passengers would need to rise from £170 last year to £195 by 2023 and to £258 by 2043.
The study by the University of Southampton concludes that the long-term reduction in the cost of air travel, which has become 1.3% cheaper a year on average since 1979, must be reversed, The Times reported.
The growth in demand for flights is likely to outpace improvements in fuel efficiency, meaning the only way the industry could meet its commitment to “carbon-neutral growth by 2020” would be to deter people from flying by making it more costly.
The annual growth in passengers would need to be halved from 4.8% to 2.4% a year to cap emissions at the level projected for 2020.
Report co-author Professor John Preston said: “There is little doubt that increasing demand for air travel will continue for the foreseeable future. As a result, civil aviation is going to become an increasingly significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions.”
The authors accept that any move to suppress demand by raising fares would be “strongly resisted” by consumers.
They suggest that the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) is too weak to fulfil its climate pledges because it “lacks the legal authority to force compliance”.
The study concludes: “The benefits of an extensive, well-connected aviation network are difficult to dispute . . . However, it is clear that from an environmental perspective there is an urgent requirement for a global regulator with ‘teeth’ to be established.”
Matt Grote, a co-author, said that airlines had given themselves the option of achieving their carbon-neutral goal by “offsetting”, or paying other industries to reduce their emissions.
“The problem is that there is no guarantee that offsetting will actually reduce emissions,” he said.