The Chancellor promised to ‘move at speed’ if the airport presents third runway proposals but we’ve been here before, reports Ian Taylor
Chancellor Rachel Reeves may have confirmed government backing for a third runway at Heathrow in late January, but firing the starting gun on expansion may only bring the obstacles into focus.
Addressing a business audience in Oxfordshire, Reeves invited proposals for a third runway “to be brought forward by the summer” and promised: “The government will move at speed to review the Airports National Policy Statement on granting development consent.”
She also signalled support for expansion at Gatwick and Luton, as was expected.
However, the obstacles to this wholesale expansion of airports are significant. One is the scale of expansion – projects at Stansted and City airports have already been approved and with expansion at Heathrow and Gatwick could mean an 85% increase in passenger numbers around London.
There is barely the airspace at present for the existing schedules at Heathrow and Gatwick, so airspace modernisation is key. But the CAA’s airspace modernisation programme extends to 2040.
Reeves’ enthusiasm for expansion is not shared by all in the cabinet.
Energy and climate change secretary Ed Miliband publicly responded by saying: “Aviation expansion must be justified within carbon budgets and, if it can’t, won’t go ahead.” Privately he was reported to be “livid”.
A government source suggested there had been “a huge row between the Treasury and just about everybody”.
Heathrow expansion is not universally supported by airlines. British Airways, parent group IAG and Virgin Atlantic oppose a third runway without a transformation of Heathrow’s regulatory regime and reduction in landing charges. Yet financing a third runway will depend on funds raised through a levy on Heathrow fares.
The government insists expansion will only proceed if Heathrow meets its environmental targets. It’s hard to see how this will be possible.
Reeves claimed sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) would be a “gamechanger” in addressing the CO2 challenges of expansion. But the government projects SAF will comprise only 22% of aviation fuel by 2040.
The government said it will engage with the Climate Change Committee “on how aviation expansion can be consistent” with net zero commitments. However, the committee reported in 2023: “No airport expansion should proceed until a UK-wide capacity management framework is in place. . . After a framework is developed . . . Any additional airport capacity that would facilitate increased demand should not take place unless corresponding reductions in capacity are made at other UK airports.”
Legal challenges are certain. London mayor Sadiq Khan has already said he “won’t hesitate to launch” a legal challenge.
One of the biggest challenges could be in construction. Experts question whether the UK has the skills to deliver a project of this size when construction worker numbers have fallen by 360,000-plus and Brexit means there is no simple way to bring in EU workers.
Heathrow will now revise its 2019 plan for expansion which involves diverting the M25 motorway through a tunnel and demolishing 750 homes. This was costed at £14 billion in 2014, a ludicrously small sum in light of the subsequent rise in construction costs – witness the bottomless hole that is the budget for HS2.
A third runway has previously been approved – by a Labour government in 2009, a Conservative government in 2015, and by Parliament in 2018. But here we are again.