Boeing will not be meeting delivery demand for its commercial aircraft until 2030, the boss of one of the world’s largest leasing firms has predicted.
Gediminas Ziemelis, founder and chairman of Dublin-based Avia Solutions Group, made the comments after visiting Boeing’s facilities in Seattle.
The head of the ACMI (aircraft, crew, maintenance and insurance) and wet-lease provider was at the plant for a ceremonial signing with Boeing Commercial Airplane’s chief executive Stephanie Pope, for an order for up to 80 Boeing 737 Max 8s, placed in November. The order is split between 40 firm aircraft and 40 options.
Both Airbus and Boeing have suffered major supply chain disruptions since the pandemic, hindering their ability to build on 2018 delivery records.
Boeing delivered 348 aircraft in 2024, leaving it with a total backlog of more than 5,500 unfilled orders. Airbus managed to deliver 776 aircraft in 2024, four below its official target.
Airbus today (Friday) reported 25 commercial aircraft deliveries to 17 customers in January as it attracted 55 orders.
Boeing has been plagued by safety issues after two crashes involving 737 Max 8s in 2018 and 2019, which killed 346 people. A panel fell off a new Alaska Airlines 787 Max 9 a year ago, resulting in Boeing paying $160 million in initial compensation. The company then faced a lengthy strike by machinists and sunk to biggest annual deficit since the pandemic of $11.8 billion last year.
However, Ziemelis believes Boeing will have overcome its production issues within the next five years.
He said: “I’ve seen first-hand as a customer that Boeing is turning the corner on its production issues.
“I anticipate a gradual return to 2018 production levels from both Airbus and Boeing as we progress through the rest of the decade.
“This year, and perhaps 2026, will be the last years when the industry will experience any real impact from missed deliveries.
“By 2030, I expect both manufacturers to have resumed normal operations.”
Ziemelis, who participated in the inauguration ceremony of US president Donald Trump in Washington, added: “The more vocal critics of Airbus and Boeing are likely being opportunistic, seeking to leverage current challenges for better deals. When we placed our inaugural direct order with Boeing last year, we did so based on our confidence in the aircraft and the company. This conviction remains unwavering.”
Certares Management, a US investment management firm focusing on the travel and tourism sector, together with investment advisory firm Knighthead Capital Management, invested €300 million in Avia in 2021.
The group operates 221 aircraft and is a parent company to more than 250 subsidiaries including SmartLynx Airlines, Avion Express, BBN Indonesia Airlines, and KlasJet.