High prices for economy airfares can be expected to drop in the next six months, according to an expert.
The price of cheaper tickets rose this year following a growth in demand, partly caused by consumers’ pandemic-era savings running low.
But Flight Centre UK’s head of aviation, Justin Penny, has predicted that fares will fall after the summer and into the first quarter of 2024.
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Airlines are offering low airfares for post-summer travel, Penny said, especially those operating transatlantic routes. This is because they are seeing a slight drop-off in demand, he added.
British Airways and Virgin Atlantic are among those looking to fill their aircraft for the first quarter of 2024 as early as possible.
Eastbound prices also look set to fall, according to Penny, with consumer confidence in China stopovers expected to return.
Before the pandemic, customers saved money by stopping in China for one or two nights on the way to destinations including Australia.
But Covid-19 made British travellers more nervous about the layover option, according to Penny.
Now, though, affordable indirect flights are growing in popularity once again, which Penny believes will lead to Singapore Airlines and Qantas lowering their prices to remain competitive.
Turning to this summer, Penny said cheap last-minute tickets are more or less a thing of the past.
As prices will not fall this summer, people should book as soon as possible or look ahead to next year and secure a deal, Penny said.
Destination-wise, some of the best-value summer locations are those in southeast Asia, including Vietnam, Penny said, where a two-week break could be similar in cost to a week in Europe.
For winter holidays, value can be found in South Africa – but Penny recommended booking now because prices rise as the country reaches its summer.
Among Penny’s other observations was that appetite for premium travel has dropped since 2022, with reserves of disposable income becoming depleted.
Luxury travel saw a spike following lockdown, he said, when customers adopted a ‘you only live once’ attitude.
Now, though, economy fares have grown in popularity, which has pushed up prices – as has the need to use up Covid flight credits before they expire.