International arrivals to the US will fail to surpass pre-pandemic levels until 2025, according to latest projections.
Trade body the US Travel Association warned that excessive wait times for visas was compounding a worsening economic outlook.
The group’s biannual forecast shows a significant downgrade in international inbound travel for the rest of 2022 and 2023.
It described this as a “worrying trend caused by economic concerns and exacerbated by excessive wait times for first-time visa applicants”.
The association suggested in June that international visitor numbers would end the year at 67% of pre-pandemic 2019 levels and 82% in 2023.
But that forecast has been downgraded to just 63% of pre-pandemic volume for 2022 and 75% for 2023.
This reflects an additional loss of 8 million visitors and $28 billion in spending over those two years.
International inbound travel is not projected to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2025.
The number of foreign visitors to the US hit 79.4 million in 2019 but slumped to 19.2 million in 2020 and 22.1 million last year.
Numbers are forecast to recover to 50.2 million this year, almost 60 million next year, 75.4 million in 2024, 84.8 million in 2025 before rising to more than 89 million in 2026.
Waiting times for first-time visitor visa applicant interviews exceed an average of 400 days in the top 10 source markets for travel to the US, according to the association.
Wait times in key international markets such as Brazil, India and Mexico have also worsened in recent months.
The group’s chief executive Geoff Freeman said: “While economic concerns are natural, excessive visitor visa wait times are a manmade obstacle that the Biden administration seemingly refuses to address.
“Reducing visitor visa wait times in top inbound markets will drive visitation and help protect the American economy.”
The projections come despite the US government identifying inbound travel as an economic priority with a goal of attracting 90 million international visitors by 2027.