The outbound holiday and flights market may be “significantly smaller” than pre-pandemic despite continuing strong demand for this summer.
That is according to a rolling survey of UK travel intentions by consumer research firm BVA BDRC. It found 2.9% of respondents took a flight in April, the highest proportion since the removal of UK restrictions and second only to last September since the pandemic began.
The same proportion booked an overseas holiday in April, up on February (2.7%) and March (2.1%) though down on January (3.4%) – otherwise, it was the highest booking rate since January 2020 (5.6%).
However, domestic bookings now appear to be outpacing those overseas. The study found a higher rate of UK holiday bookings in April (5.1%) and January (5.9%) than last summer when the domestic booking rate peaked at 4.1%, and much higher than January 2020 (3.7%).
At the same time, researchers noted a lag between the volume of flight searches, according to the Google Trends UK search index, and bookings. Flight bookings lagged searches throughout the pandemic, with the gap closing last summer through to November, widening in December, then closing in January before widening again by April to the widest to date.
The researchers suggest the gap “between looking and booking” returned “as inflation started to bite”.
They also note: “Those booking UK holidays rose significantly during April to more than double the corresponding period in 2021.”
Jon Young, BVA BDRC research director, said: “The incidence of UK consumers booking overseas trips is four to five times higher year on year.
“However, comfort levels [about travelling] remain low although outbound restrictions have lifted.”
He suggested: “The cost-of-living crisis is holding back overseas trip intention.”
Head of hotels research James Bland added: “The pressing question is whether interest [in travel] is sufficient to cope with the cost-of-living challenges. I’m not expecting as big a return to foreign holidays as we might otherwise have seen.”
The BVA BDRC ClearSight survey was conducted among 1,760 UK adults on May 3-9.