The latest consumer research in Scotland suggests an increase in the proportion of adults planning an overseas holiday this year compared with 2022 at the expense of domestic holidays.
The first Scottish Tourism Index survey of 2023, conducted in January, suggests a small decline year on year in the overall intention of households in Scotland to take a holiday.
But the online survey of more than 1,000 adults found small increases in the proportion planning international trips within Europe and beyond.
The research found 70% of Scots took at least one holiday in 2022, with one third (33%) having a holiday in Europe and 10% travelling further afield, while 45% took at least a short break in Scotland and 28% a holiday or break elsewhere in the UK.
A higher proportion (72%) expressed an intention to have a holiday this year.
Yet the researchers noted this was “slightly lower” than at the same stage last year and concluded that “with the tendency for some people to overclaim their holiday intentions, [this] suggests overall holiday taking is likely to be slightly lower this year than last”.
However, while there was a decline of ten percentage points in the proportion planning a holiday in Scotland (35%), there was a three-point rise to 36% in those intending to travel in Europe and a two-point rise to 12% in those planning a longer trip.
That led 56 Degree Insight to suggest: “The recovery in outbound tourism will continue partly at the expense of domestic holidays.”
It reported: “In particular holidays to Spain look set to grow with almost one in five Scots (19%) planning a holiday there.”
The survey found 43% of respondents felt the cost of living would have “a major impact” on their holiday decisions, and 42% were spending less time planning holidays in January than at the same time last year.
The researchers concluded there could be an “overall net decrease of 3% in holiday taking”, but “a slight increase in foreign travel”. However, they warned: “There remains a lot of uncertainty.
“The cost-of-living crisis is definitely impacting plans. It looks as if there will be a slight downturn in holiday taking generally, especially in domestic holidays. Overseas trips seem to be holding up better with slight increases forecast.”
The Scottish Tourism Index survey is conducted quarterly by research firm 56 Degree Insight.