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Turkey and Greece lead summer rebound in visitor numbers

Turkey and Greece both exceeded pre-pandemic levels of international visitor arrivals by 9% and 2% respectively during the summer peak despite flight disruption.

New data show that no other major destination recovered to the numbers seen in 2019, although Slovenia, just 7% down, Iceland, 8% down, and Portugal, 10% down, came close.

The statistics for July and August were revealed by air ticketing data firm ForwardKeys.

European destinations could have attracted more visitors if the aviation industry had been better able to cope with the surge in demand for travel during late spring and early summer. 

Without the disruption, ForwardKeys estimates that the recovery in intra-European flight bookings would have been five percentage-points higher.

Istanbul headed the best performing cities, recording a 2% increase in flight arrivals, followed by Athens, 7% down, Reykjavik and Porto, both 8% down, and Malaga, 13% down.

Major factors driving the strong performance of Turkey include an ongoing decline in the value of the Turkish lira and its openness to the Russian market, from where direct flights to most of Europe have been banned following the invasion of Ukraine, according to ForwardKeys.

Meanwhile, Greece has performed strongly as a destination throughout the pandemic by implementing relatively visitor-friendly Covid-19 travel restrictions.

The strongest origin markets are led by the UK, where outbound flight demand for the next three months is just 2% down compared with before the pandemic. 

The UK is followed by Spain, 3% behind, the US, 5% behind, Ireland 6% behind, and Germany 11% behind.

ForwardKeys insights vice president Olivier Ponti said: “The recovery from the pandemic has  continued despite the travel chaos and capacity reductions caused by staff shortages. 

“Right now, forward bookings for leisure travel show a continued recovery in air travel, post-pandemic; and, encouragingly, business bookings are catching up. 

“However, we are still cautious about the outlook because the continued war in Ukraine and consequent impact on energy prices will negatively affect European economies, which will likely dent consumer confidence and corporate demand. 

“That said, there is currently a concentration of flight bookings during the autumn half term peaks and Christmas, which could lead to further flight disruption if the recent recruitment difficulties experienced by the aviation industry persist.”

Tom Jenkins, chief executive of European tourism association Etoa, added: “The insight ForwardKeys provides is invaluable to our understanding of recovery. Beneath the numbers, the predicted post-pandemic supply-side challenges within Europe’s tourism ecosystem remain. 

“Operators report difficulty in placing business, and erratic service levels due to staff shortages and loss of client knowledge. 

“Logistic constraints and new taxes at destination level add complexity and cost. 

“Some hoteliers are doing well, seeing robust revenue at lower occupancy rates due to strong demand for reduced inventory. 

“Others struggle. Even with high occupancy, profit margins are eroded by rapidly escalating costs. Unwelcome though these things are, they are challenges posed by business returning. 

“The industry is coping, but avoidable difficulties, such as uncertainty on taxes, are frustrating recovery.”

Etoa and ForwardKeys will share more insights into the state of the European travel market during a webinar on September 13.

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