Inbound travel to the UK will still be below pre-pandemic 2019 levels next year, VisitBritain forecast today.
The number of visits and spending by international visitors will not recover to 2019 levels until early 2025.
A total of 39.5 million visits are projected next year, up 5% on the 37.8 million expected in 2023 but still 3% shy of 2019 levels.
The forecast for spending by international visitors in the UK in 2024 is £34.1 billion, up 7% on the level predicted for this year and up 20% on 2019, although 96% of 2019 levels when adjusted for inflation.
The US continues to lead the recovery in arrivals with record spend by American visitors in the UK in 2023, up 28% on 2019 based on latest figures even when adjusted for inflation.
VisitBritain expects the US market to be worth £6.7 billion in 2024 with American visitors contributing almost £1 in every £5 of all inbound spending.
The pace of recovery from Europe slowed as 2023 progressed with spending, in real terms, remaining just below 2019 based on the latest data.
China, the UK’s second most valuable inbound market in 2019, has continued to build back with visitor numbers increasing throughout 2023, although overall East Asia has been relatively slower to recover.
VisitBritain is expecting China to recover to a value of £1.7 billion in 2024 to be the UK’s fourth most valuable inbound visitor market.
VisitBritain chief executive Patricia Yates said: “International visitors spend tens of billions of pounds in the UK with the money generated supporting local economies and jobs, so it has been great to see the double-digit growth in spending from the US as well as the overall growth forecast for next year on 2023.
“We have, however, seen a slow-down in the overall pace of recovery compared to the strong start seen in the first half of 2023 and we face fierce competition from our European neighbours.
“To drive spending to Britain our international campaigns will remain focused on those markets showing strong growth, including Australia and the US, and we’ll continue to compete hard in our major European markets and the valuable Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) countries.
“We also want more destinations across Britain to feel tourism’s economic benefits. Our global GREAT Britain campaigns are showcasing our vibrant cities, contemporary culture and beautiful coast and countryside, inspiring visitors to discover more of Britain, stay longer and to come now.”