The US Travel Association has upgraded its inbound travel forecast thanks to strong demand from the Canadian market, as well as stronger expectations from key overseas markets such as Brazil.
Year-over-year, inbound travel numbers are projected to grow 31% in 2023 to 66.7 million, and 18% in 2024, reaching 78.6 million.
Inflation-adjusted spending is projected to grow 34% in 2023 and 19% in 2024.
USTA said volume in this sector is projected to recover by 2025, while inflation-adjusted spending will not recover until 2026.
Last month, statistics from the US National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO) showed that the UK market to the US is marginally outpacing the recovery of other core northern European source destinations – but it remained 27% behind pre-pandemic levels in 2022.
The NTTO said 3.47 million UK visitors crossed the Atlantic last year, a 652% increase on 2021 but still well behind 2019 numbers.
More: UK market to US 27% behind pre-pandemic levels in 2022
The UK remains America’s number one overseas source market and third internationally after Canada and Mexico.
The overall international market to the US in 2022 was 50.87 million visitors, 36% behind pre-pandemic levels.
The USTA forecast also shows a more normal rate of growth in the US domestic leisure travel sector after months of elevated demand.
Geoff Freeman, USTA president and chief executive, said: “Robust domestic leisure travel demand has been the driving force in the overall industry’s post-pandemic comeback.
“Though the surge we experienced in the last year is starting to moderate, we expect this segment to remain resilient in coming quarters.”
The association has also reiterated the need to improve the overall air travel experience through the Federal Aviation Administration reauthorisation bill and reduce customs wait times at US airports and other ports of entry experiencing “excessive” delays.
It also wants a greater federal focus on travel industry growth, as other countries have done.
Freeman said: “Travel is essential to growing the US economy and workforce, so the federal government must enact policies to ensure our industry is able to meet demand in coming years.”