The trade has been told to be ready to adapt offers for budget-conscious and anxious clients as firms predict a flatter peak season and one analyst fears a short-haul pricing “bloodbath”.
Travel agents and tour operators continue to report strong sales, with latest booking polls also overwhelmingly positive, but acknowledge challenges in the price-sensitive family market.
A survey of 2,000 UK consumers by easyJet found 66% of respondents said taking a holiday was the most important ‘spend’ for next year, with 64% planning to fly abroad in 2023.
A poll of 135 operators and agents in The Specialist Travel Association (Aito), found 82% expected business conditions to stay the same or improve over the next six months.
Despite the polls and continued booking momentum, Advantage Travel Partnership chief executive Julia Lo Bue-Said warned there was no room for complacency.
“You cannot take your foot off the gas,” she said, adding: “There is a tendency to feel nervous because it’s the unknown. It is a late-booking trend; what we don’t know is whether that will shift come January.”
Agents said adapting deals to suit clients on tight budgets would be vital.
Spear Travels head of retail operations Natalie Turner reported fewer family enquiries, which were taking longer to convert, and clients with budget restraints.
She added: “Understanding the customer’s needs and flexibility to achieve a suitable holiday will be as important as ever. Often customers become more flexible when they understand the limitations of price.”
Premier Travel managing director Paul Waters agreed: “Being able to offer the flexibility on holiday types and durations will be key this peaks.”
Independent Travel Experts managing director Gary Gillespie said its homeworkers were being encouraged to switch-sell.
“Switch-selling to cruise from all-inclusive Mediterranean holidays has worked well as the added value is outstanding,” he said. “Likewise, suggesting shorter durations or alternative destinations often leads to a booking.
The real test may be at balance collection when many people will have a clearer picture of whether they can actually afford to go away.”
Travel Department chief executive Sara Zimmerman said the cost-of-living crisis was also hitting mature clients.
She said: “Our clients are financially secure but emotionally less so. I fear that might come down the line in January and February. There is an element of emotional anxiety and not being seen to ‘flash the cash’ when others are suffering.”
Operators said finding trips to suit clients’ budgets would be crucial.
Exsus Travel head of trade sales Neil Sealy said: “People don’t expect it to be so expensive: you need to be able to sell them something.”
Sunvil managing director Chris Wright said customers were already downgrading accommodation or flights and predicted a drop-off in price-sensitive younger clients.
He said: “We are still seeing a lot of pent-up demand but we’re mindful it could drop off at some point next year.”
Ionian Island Holidays managing director Dimitri Patrikios noted July and August bookings were down compared with shoulder-season bookings and reported a switch from 14-night stays to seven. “Families are feeling the pinch. They are waiting to book but more nervous,” he added.
Speaking at last weekend’s Aito Overseas Conference, Travel Trade Consultancy director Martin Alcock said the mainstream short-haul sector could be the most-affected.
“I would not want to be in the short-haul mass market in January. It will be a bloodbath,” he said.