A mixed sales picture is emerging as war in Ukraine enters its fourth week but travel agents say holiday demand remains strong.
Bookings have slowed for many agents compared with the boom of the last two months, while others reported a switch in destinations or seasons being sold.
Spear Travels chairman Peter Cookson said bookings had dropped to 50% of pre-Covid levels as the Ukraine situation worsened.
“Lots of people are still asking about holidays but confidence to book has diminished rapidly,” he said, adding: “Everyone is waiting to see what happens.”
Premier Travel’s sales last week were down 8% on 2019, with shops quieter. It’s the first time the agency has not been in a positive sales position versus 2019 “for a while”.
Director Paul Waters noted “the demand and the want to travel is there” but said it was unclear why some clients were “not ready to make the final commitment”.
Inspired Travel managing director Kate Harris agreed: “It’s taking people longer to make a decision but whether they are stalling for a bit more certainty I don’t know.”
The Advantage Travel Partnership reported a change in destination mix while members’ sales rose 8% in the last week. Sales for the eastern Mediterranean sales have slowed and bookings for western Mediterranean increased.
Leisure director Kelly Cookes said: “Volumes aren’t slowing but destinations being booked are changing. People seem determined to travel if they can.”
Other agents continued to enjoy brisk trading and described consumer uncertainly as simply “taking the edge off” sales.
Miles Morgan Travel chairman Miles Morgan said: “Sales have dropped a little but you won’t catch me moaning. We’re still in a great position compared to where we were [in Covid].”
He added: “Covid was different, you couldn’t travel. This [the war] should not stop travel to Spain.”
Idle Travel remained “crazy busy” but with sales slower than the last two months – its busiest January and February in 39 years’ of trading.
“I’m at the point where I have to decide if I take on someone else,” said director Tony Mann. But he admitted: “In the back of my mind I’m looking at Ukraine.”
Paul Hardwick, head of commercial, Fred Olsen Travel, said big bookings were “keeping turnover and income fairly high” as overall sales slowed.
He added: “We’ve had more rebooks to process in particular for Baltic cruises but there are not too many cancellations.”
Polka Dot Travel said there was little doubt war was damaging late sales.
“Rising energy costs and increased cost of living along with the uncertainty the war creates will make life more difficult the longer it goes on,” said director Mark Johnson.
Alan Bowen, legal advisor to the Association of Atol Companies, also predicted an impact. “Ukraine is quite close to Bulgaria and Turkey and Jet2 cancelled holidays to Bulgaria last week,” he said.
Operators selling Europe saw a “sudden change” last week, he reported. “Calls are coming through, but it’s increasingly difficult to sell. Ukraine is the only thing on the news.”
Bowen said the situation could be made worse in the next month by talk of airline surcharges and a rise in living costs.
He said: “We’re not seeing fuel surcharges yet, but airlines are having to fly a lot further to the Far East [to avoid Russian airspace] and talking about surcharges.
“The price of petrol is horrendous, but everything else is going up in April – gas and electric bills, council tax, National Insurance. People will have less money.”
A leading airline source said: “It’s hard to evaluate the impact [of the war]. The wider concern is over escalating costs and consumers’ disposable income. That has to have a bearing.”
A second aviation source said: “Flights to Eastern Europe have cratered. It seems the recovery has stalled. People are a bit hesitant. But it’s also the cost-of-living crisis.”
Loganair became one of the first carriers to add a fuel surcharge to bookings last week, adding £3.95 per one-way fare from March 21.
CroisiEurope has also “reluctantly” taken a decision to introduce a “small fuel surcharge” on all 2022 departures.