Airlines cannot cut their carbon emissions to zero by the ‘net zero’ target of 2050 but will be left with significant ‘residual’ emissions requiring offsetting or removal from the atmosphere.
That will leave aviation among the biggest emitters of CO2, second only to farming in the UK, and “pressure will continue to build on the sector”, according to Department for Transport (DfT) deputy director for aviation decarbonisation Joe Delafield.
He told a Westminster Energy, Environment and Transport Forum on UK aviation decarbonisation: “Aviation is set very soon to become the largest transport emitter of CO2, and by 2050 it will be the second largest across the economy after agriculture.”
Delafield noted the DfT’s net zero roadmap for aviation estimates “a significant amount” (37%) of aviation emissions will not be removed by 2050 and will need to be “addressed outside aviation”
The department’s roadmap suggests just 17% of emissions will be addressed through SAF use by 2050 and 27% by the UK and EU emissions trading schemes (ETS) and global Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) developed by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
The Corsia scheme remains voluntary until 2027.
Delafield said ETS and Corsia “will increase costs, drive down demand and incentivise use of alternative fuels”.
IAG group head of sustainability Jonathon Counsell acknowledged: “We don’t believe we can get to zero carbon by 2050. We will have residual emissions.”
He also acknowledged non-CO2 emissions poses “a crucial challenge”.