Agents may lose millions of pounds in commission as cruise customers become more confident about booking online.
Speaking at the Seatrade Europe conference in Hamburg this week, Hapag Lloyd Cruises managing director Sebastian Ahrens said cruise distribution will go the same way as airline sales.
He said: “Sales are driven through the trade because clients want an agent to help them through what they see as a complex world.
“But I doubt it will stay like that. Twenty years ago people went to an agent to book a flight because they were insecure about their choice of airline. But not anymore.
“A basic cruise is not complex and as people get more savvy about cruising, they will feel comfortable about booking it themselves.”
Ahrens said it was bad news for agents as cruising is a massive earner. In 2005, European agents earned an estimated £357 million in commission from cruises, according to the European Cruise Council’s first Economic Impact Study.
However, he said there will be opportunities for the trade. “Agents will have a role to play guiding and advising first-timers. Exploration and luxury cruises are complex and need explanation.”
MSC Cruises chief executive Pierfrancesco Vago said agents are vital in helping to raise awareness of the MSC name.
He said: “We work closely with the trade so they can understand the product, which makes it easier for them to sell.”
Association of Cruise Experts director of business development Andy Harmer said UK agents think they have to discount to gain a competitive advantage.
He said: “They are wrong. They gain a competitive advantage if they take time to understand clients’ requirements.”