The Tourism 2023 project, initiated by Forum for the Future and backed by travel giants from ABTA to Thomas Cook and TUI Travel, has unveiled four possible scenarios for the development of the industry.
Below are summaries of the scenarios, and links to explanatory videos on green.tv. To read up on the scenarios in detail, download the full Tourism 2023 report (pdf, 7MB).
Boom and burst
A booming UK economy and impressive advances in transport technologies have fuelled a growth in travel worldwide. People travel more frequently, further and at faster speeds than ever before and there are many new reasons to go abroad.
But precarious trade-offs have been needed in order to meet the UK’s emission targets, and many destinations are suffering from serious overcrowding. People
are now asking: how long can this growth be maintained?
Divided disquiet
Travelling overseas is an unattractive proposition. A toxic combination of devastating climate change impacts, violent wars over scarce resources and social unrest has created an unstable and fearful world. Security is tight and travel is cumbersome, time-consuming and inefficient.
Visitors are highly selective in where and when they travel, cramming into a small number of destinations where tight restrictions and overcrowding compound the problems. Many people have begun to think that holidaying abroad just makes the problems worse.
Price and privilege
A dramatically high oil price has made travel punitively expensive. Cost is the primary concern for holidaymakers as everyone asks: how far can I get for my money?
Although a small, elite market continues to fly regularly, the vast majority of people simply cannot afford the experience. There have been mass redundancies across the travel industry and the affordability of overland routes has led to radical restructuring.
www.green.tv/price_and_privilege
Carbon clampdown
Tradable carbon quotas have been introduced for all UK households as part of the government’s bold plans to tackle climate change. The public has clamoured for tough action as environmental impacts are increasingly felt.
Holidaymakers are highly sensitive to the impacts of their travel and seek ethical experiences that are within their carbon budget. Holidaying in Britain is back in fashion and has soared in popularity.
