Winter bookings for Tui Travel and Thomas Cook are substantially ahead of the rest of the UK industry, according to figures released by the big two and industry analyst GfK Ascent.
Tui Travel reported winter 2010-11 bookings up 5% on a year ago as it posted a group operating profit of £447 million for the year to September last week.
The group has added 5% capacity in the UK this winter compared with last year, restoring some of that removed a year ago. It reported an average selling price on mainstream sales 11% higher than last year. The figures were for bookings up until November 21.
Thomas Cook said UK sales for the winter were up 2% year on year, in line with a 2% rise in capacity, in a trading update issued with its annual results published last week.
Thomas Cook’s figures were for bookings up until November 28, and it reported a rise in average selling price of 2% on last year – representing a price fall against the official UK inflation rate of 3.2% (the Consumer Price Index) and even more against the 4.6% rate of the Retail Price Index. Tui Travel reported it had slightly more left to sell for the season than this time last year (+3%), while Thomas Cook said its winter programme was 54% sold – in line with last year.
By contrast, industry analyst GfK Ascent reported cumulative bookings for the season 2% down on last year at the start of November, following a 4% decline on 2009 in October.
High-street sales have suffered most – down 4% against a 1% decline in direct bookings, according to GfK Ascent data. Family bookings continued to outperform the market at -1% on a year ago while eight to 13-night durations were up 17% and all-inclusives up 13%.
GfK Ascent reported a decline in bookings year on year for all departure months this winter except February, when numbers are flat, and April, when there is a 13% increase to date coinciding with Easter and the royal wedding. However, there is little evidence as yet of the wedding affecting bookings.
If current trends continue, GfK Ascent managing director Sarah Smalley said: “There are likely to be more months of single-digit decline, bringing the winter season 3% to 4% down on passenger numbers from last winter.”
Tui Travel reported a 5% fall in customers in the UK and Ireland over the year to September, due to a decline last winter. It recorded an underlying group profit before tax of £337 million for the year, and an 11% rise in operating profits, despite a fall in profit in the UK and Ireland from £142 million to £127 million or -11%.
Chief executive Peter Long said: “The result was affected by weaker trading in the UK, due to increased winter losses resulting from capacity-led volume reductions. The early summer was disrupted by a number of factors that led to customer uncertainty. There was an improvement in demand later in the summer and trading closed out well.