People will want to travel again after initial nervousness, says Fieldfisher partner Alex Campbell
The business and leisure travel markets will only return once both employers and individuals feel that it is safe to travel again from a health perspective.
When governments started implementing travel restrictions on their populations, companies in turn started introducing travel bans for employees to avoid the risk of exposing them to the coronavirus.
The business travel bans ultimately resulted in the postponement or cancellation of many high-profile corporate events, as high-profile event sponsors, speakers and attendees withdrew their support for the events going ahead during the coronavirus outbreak.
Personal travel also reduced prior to governmental lockdowns due to the concerns people had around the risk of catching the coronavirus abroad and needing to rely on a foreign health system that they were not registered in.
Companies will not be willing to relax the business travel bans on their employees, particularly as virtual meetings and conferences through video chat software are gaining in popularity during the lockdown.
Individuals will not wish to travel on a leisure basis until they can be comfortable that the risk of exposure to the coronavirus is very minimal.
Their concerns may hold back the recovery of the business travel market as well as the personal leisure travel market.
On a positive note, as the global lockdown concludes people will be less interested in spending money on material possessions and instead are likely to spend on holidays, travel and experiences.
The medium-term prospects for the hotel and leisure travel sector are, therefore, good.
Business Insider estimates that more than a third of the world’s population is currently under some form of travel restriction.
There will be a pent-up demand from people who are feeling restricted and under-stimulated due to the COVID-19 lockdown for holidays, travel and experiences.
It is likely that once lockdown measures are eased, that there will be a great surge of demand in the retail and hospitality sector.
After a big post-lockdown celebration, there may be a small “relief rebound” where people reflect on how the negative impact of the coronavirus outbreak has affected them, and where they curtail their travel activities.
However, this will not last long as people will wish to forget the gloomier times and enjoy themselves again.
