Industry-backed sustainability charity The Travel Foundation has called for “limits to aviation growth” and a cap on long-haul trips that could account for 41% of tourism CO2 emissions by 2050.
The Travel Foundation also demanded “substantial government and industry-wide investment”, shifts in modes of transport and support for vulnerable destinations as it finalises a report concluding additional measures to decarbonise must “be applied immediately” to stop the escalation of emissions.
It warned the current reliance on carbon offsets, technology efficiencies and biofuels “are woefully inadequate”, with global tourism numbers forecast to double by 2050 and without urgent action the industry won’t “come close” to halving emissions by 2030 in line with the Glasgow Declaration on Climate Action signed by more than 700 travel and tourism organisations.
The report, Envisioning Tourism in 2030, follows a study undertaken with the Centre of Expertise for Leisure, Tourism & Hospitality (CELTH), Breda University, the European Tourism Futures Institute and the Netherlands Board of Tourism, with input from travel businesses, destinations and industry stakeholders.
It concludes destinations and businesses must take action now to build resilience to changes in visitor patterns and the worsening impacts of climate change.
Using ‘systems modelling’ to explore scenarios, the report’s authors identified a single decarbonisation pathway that matched current growth forecasts, involving trillion-dollar investments in decarbonisation measures and prioritising shorter trips by road and rail.
It would require “limits to aviation growth until it is fully able to decarbonise, capping the longest-distance trips” at 2019 levels. These made up 2% of trips yet 19% of tourism emissions. If left unchecked, the longest trips would account for 41% of tourism emissions by 2050.
CELTH director Menno Stokman warned: “Business as usual is neither desirable nor viable. Climate impacts are already here, increasing in frequency and severity, with monumental costs for humanity and the environment.
Current decarbonisation strategies will reach net zero far too late. We must reshape the system. Shifts in investment will get us there within a decade for shorter trips. But for long-haul we need more time.”
Travel Foundation chief executive Jeremy Sampson said: “The risk is that the most vulnerable people and nations will lose out. We urge governments to coordinate globally and consider what is fair in terms of who pays for this huge investment.”
The Envision Tourism recommendations are in line with the Glasgow Declaration and Intrepid Travel was among the first signatories when it launched last year at COP26.
Susanne Etti, Intrepid global environmental impact manager, said: “This research shows the need to plan now for a resilient low-carbon tourism sector. We must recognise the future will be different from business as usual.” The report is due to be published early next year.