The travel market will struggle and the post-Covid recovery be delayed by “the energy price shock” and recession this winter and through 2023, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has warned.
But Ryanair will “steam ahead in what is a favourable market for us”, O’Leary insisted.
Speaking as Ryanair unveiled its largest-ever winter schedule from the UK yesterday, O’Leary warned: “Consumer price inflation will be as nothing to the energy price shock this winter.”
He said: “You would be crazy not to be worried about a looming recession and the energy crisis. But people will not stop flying.
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“Many people have to fly for work and for weddings or funerals, and in a recession people get much more price sensitive.
“Some people may travel less, but we’ll see more people trading down to the lowest-fare operator which is us.
“The question is not can people afford to fly but can people afford to fly with British Airways or Lufthansa?”
O’Leary warned: “The overall market will struggle. The market in 2023 and 2024 will not return to pre-Covid levels.
“A recession will significantly dampen the overall traffic recovery post-Covid. A lot of capacity is not coming back. Wizz Air us reducing winter capacity by 25%.
“A recession will take out more of the competition.”
But he argued: “Every time there is a recession we grow faster. This will be our fourth or fifth. We’ll grow stronger as we have in every other recession.
“We’ll grow as we’re the lowest-cost airline and have game-changer, fuel efficient Boeing 737 Max aircraft. We’re very well hedged on our fuel at low prices [and] we’ll be much more efficient.
“It’s full steam ahead in what is a favourable market for us.”
Ryanair operated 15% more capacity than in 2019 this summer and O’Leary insisted the carrier’s growth would continue, saying: “I’ve never tempered a growth plan in my life.
“We’re leading the UK post-Covid recovery. Our flights are filling quicker than pre-Covid and fares are higher.”
But he added: “It’s inevitable that fares will go up. High oil prices mean they have to go up. There will be pressure on air fares into summer 2023.
“The energy crisis will affect the whole of Europe this winter. Where does inflation finish up? It depends how deep and dark the recession is and where the oil price settles.”