Official industry data has backed up optimism for a Turkey recovery although plans by Jet2holidays to pile on capacity in 2018 are being described as “brave”.
GfK’s latest Travel Insights analysis shows Turkey was 9.8% down year on year in terms of UK passenger numbers for summer 2017 to the week ending July 29.
However, in the four-week period from the week ending July 8, passenger volumes were up 29% compared with the same period last year.
The recent revival prompted Jet2holidays to report a “huge upswing” for the destination and a near-doubling of capacity in 2018.
Rival operator Thomas Cook also claimed Turkey had seen “significant growth” this year.
The Turkish market was severely hit by fears about terrorism amid last year’s attempted coup and Syrian refugee crisis, and several attacks in major cities such as Istanbul.
The Foreign Office warns about the “very likely” risk of terrorism in Turkey, but does not advise against travel except in areas close to the Syrian and Iraqi borders.
Alan Bowen, legal adviser to the Association of Atol Companies, described Jet2’s decision to raise capacity by 91% as “brave”.
“It’s a risk, and whether or not it is successful remains to be seen,” he said. “Jet2 is doing incredibly well, but they’ll be keeping their fingers crossed there are no other incidents in the intervening 12 months. It will only take one to put people off again.”
Bowen said Turkey was seeing strong sales in the lates market because there’s “nothing left” in Spain and Portugal.
GfK reported summer 2017 passenger volumes to the week ending July 29 were up year on year by 11% to Spain, 46% to Croatia, 10% to Italy, 8% to Portugal, 8% to Greece and 6% to Cyprus.