The impact of climate change and potential final year of the Trump administration will be the two most important causes of travel risks in 2020.
The projection comes from travel risk intelligence company Riskline which also highlights Brexit and terrorism as among the top ten travel risks for the year.
Efforts to reverse the damage caused by climate change are insufficient as the US, the second-largest carbon emitter, plans to withdraw from the landmark Paris Agreement in 2020 if Trump wins another term in office, the company said.
Other issues include internet outages, anti-systemic protests and water shortages.
Riskline operations director Adam Schrader said: “Although predicting what will happen in 2020 is a fool’s errand in an increasingly irrational world, a careful examination of ongoing and emerging trends provides crucial information for businesses planning the year ahead.
“All of the predicted risks we’ve shared are equally important, but two of them in particular will underpin the most dangerous security threats in 2020: the ongoing effects of climate change and the potential final year of the Trump administration.
“In the case of the former, it will be the mostly unseen, long-term effects that are the greater danger, as droughts or floods destroy land and livelihoods and become the catalysts for new violent conflicts and forced migration.
“Meanwhile, the prospect that 2020 could be the final year of the Trump presidency bodes ill for international peace.
“Both allies and antagonists of the United States may feel that the level of impunity they have enjoyed in foreign affairs since 2016 may be coming to an end.”
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