BOOK early. That’s the message agents need to tell clients amid warnings not every customer will get the holiday of their choice this year.
Operators have cut capacity by 2% this year, with the number of holidays just 1% above 2005 sales, according to the 28th annual travel report by Professor Allan Beaver.
Beaver, head of Bournemouth University’s International Centre of Tourism and Hospitality Research, said: “If the capacity you are offering is almost identical to what actual sales were last year, some people who want to travel on a package holiday will not be able to.”
Capacity cuts are evidence that operators are following the more business-like approach demanded by shareholders seeking greater profits, said Beaver.
“The industry is maturer than a few years ago when you had pricing madness,” he said.
“The number of holidays was artificially high because people were selling them at unprofitable prices – any fool can do that. Fewer package holidays means better profits and better profits mean a stable, strong industry. It means no-one goes broke.”
In his annual report – seen as one of the most authorititive in the industry and revealed exclusively by Travel Weekly – Beaver surveyed 94% of UK travel companies, asking them about brochure prices, booking trends and capacity.
This year’s survey found operators believe brochure prices will increase 3% this year, with the average package selling for £530. However, the larger operators claim when discounts and special offers are taken into account, the actual price paid will only increase by 1%.
Yields in 2005 were at record levels with summer load factors hitting 96.4%, the highest since Beaver started writing his reports in 1978. In 1994, loads reached just 92.2%, the lowest since 1985.
Figures show only half of the package holidays bought in the UK were sold by the major multiples, the lowest proportion since 1993. This trend is set to continue in 2006 as the major chains reduce their shop networks.
Global Travel Group chief executive Andrew Botterill said it is important to get the book early message out into the market.
“There are no signs at the moment there will be any problem booking a package holiday this year, it’s just you may pay more,” he said.
“For the first time, the book early message is one that should be taken seriously. People who wait will either not get the holiday they want or pay more than anticipated.”
Traditional package passengers are predicted to fall by 2%, but 5% more Brits will head overseas with tailor-made and dynamically packaged trips giving agents the chance to take up the slack.