Recent terrorist attacks and geo-political wrangles are failing to dampen demand for airline bookings.
Passengers from Europe, the Americas and the Far East, are making more bookings and taking more flights, new data reveals.
The findings will be presented at the World Travel and Tourism Council’s Global Summit in Bangkok which starts tomorrow (Wednesday).
The data has been compiled by ForwardKeys, which predicts future patterns by analysing 16 million booking transactions a day.
The findings show that Canada is the new star destination in North America and that Europe is recovering from last year’s terrorist attacks with arrivals growth is back on track.
Canada and Mexico are setting the pace for long-haul arrivals from the Americas. The Netherlands, China, the UK, and Germany are fuelling additional forward bookings to both countries.
The US suffered a slump in visitors in the first quarter of the year – uncertainty due to Donald Trump’s travel ban and the stronger value of the dollar may have discouraged Middle Eastern (down 9.5%) and European travellers (down 6.5%).
Forward bookings to the US have picked up, mainly due to Easter shift. Long-haul arrivals in western Europe are on the increase – showing its resilience in the face of last year’s terror attacks.
It has taken over a year to recover, but long-haul arrivals are starting to surge again, reaching visitor numbers higher than those seen before the Paris attacks in November 2015.
China’s power to make or break a destination is demonstrated by the recent trend in visitor numbers to South Korea.
Beijing’s anger at the stationing of US missiles in South Korea is having a marked effect. ForwardKeys’ data reveals international arrivals in South Korea, for stays of four to eight nights, fell 10% in the first quarter of this year due to cancellations by Chinese tour groups in March. Forward bookings for the same category are currently lagging 28%.
Asean countries are the most likely to benefit from South Korea’s visitor crisis – as they certainly have the increased capacity for visitors from China.
Meanwhile, BRIC countries are travelling again in bigger numbers – Brazil has been on the up since the end of its political crisis in 2016, and Russia had its first positive monthly performance in December 2016 since its annexation of Crimea in March 2014.
Both countries’ currencies are recovering in value – indicating more travel to come.
Forward bookings show that four out of five of the top increasing destinations for Brazilians are in Europe. Indian travellers prefer Asia Pacific.
Russians like Georgia, Czech Republic, UAE and Italy. Turkey’s big increase is due to Russian travel sanctions the previous year.
Thailand is benefiting from the BRIC boom, helping to fill a gap left by a reduction in Chinese visitors after the Thai government discouraged cheaper tour groups from China from September 2016.
ForwardKeys chief executive Olivier Jager said: “This overview reveals the resilience of the travel industry globally.
“People are finding alternative new destinations, and they are returning to others, previously blighted by dreadful events.
“However, in a world of shifting travel patterns, businesses that depend on travellers need to be able to readjust ever more quickly.”
He added: “In summary, Europe is recovering, the BRIC are back, Canada is a rising star and Thailand has made a very positive start to the year.
“However, the deployment of THAAD missiles in South Korea has torpedoed its inbound tourism industry.”