The travel industry should expect “big changes” in the government “almost regardless” of the election result and a “bumpy” two years to follow, according to a leading political commentator.
Tim Montgomerie, former Times columnist and founder of the ConservativeHome site, told the Guild of Travel Management Companies (GTMC) conference in Monaco: “Tory ministers are furious at how Theresa May has handled the election and is running the administration.
“Almost regardless of the result there will be enormous ramifications for May. The cabinet will force some big changes in the way the administration runs.
“May has alienated too many people far too quickly. We have seen so many U-turns. It is one thing not to consult colleagues when things go well. It’s another when things don’t go well.”
Montgomerie said: “A month ago we were expecting Labour to collapse. The Tories were worried their voters wouldn’t turn out.”
But he told the GTMC: “May was the first party leader in history to rip up a manifesto four days after the launch.
“The opinion polls are all over the place. The big Tory gamble is that young voters will not turn out.”
Montgomerie forecast the Conservatives would still be re-elected on June 8 “with a probable majority of 50-70”.
But he warned: “Beyond that get ready for bumpy times. The economy is weakening. There will be a lot of internal friction in the Tory party. The next two years will be pretty bumpy.”
He produced survey figures suggesting 73% of 18-24 year olds support Labour, while 64% of those aged 65 and over support the Tories.
Montgomerie said: “The difference in voting rates between the over 55s and under 35s in Britain is 38 points. Will young voters turn out [this time]? Nobody knows.”
“I don’t think [Labour leader] Corbyn will win. If he does it will be one of the biggest shocks in politics.”
On the Brexit negotiations, he suggested: “It will be like a divorce. Europe does feel we rejected them.
“They think the rhetoric of some of our newspapers and of Nigel Farage has affected all of us. It would all be a lot easier if May had created a better atmosphere.”