Airline association Iata has warned the world’s aviation infrastructure cannot cope with the likely doubling of air passenger numbers in the next 20 years.
Iata issued an updated 20-year forecast on air passenger demand this week, predicting average annual growth of 3.5% in passenger numbers which would mean 8.2 billion taking to the skies in 2037.
But it noted this growth “could be curtailed if protectionist measures are implemented” and warned: “No matter which growth scenario comes to pass, aviation faces an infrastructure crisis.
“Airports and air traffic control will not be able to handle demand. Governments and infrastructure operators must plan for the future.”
Iata director general and chief executive Alexandre de Juniac said: “Aviation is growing and generating huge benefits for the world.
“A doubling of air passengers in the next 20 years could support 100 million jobs globally.”
However, he said: “Two things stand out. First, we see a geographical reshuffling of world air traffic to the East. And second, we foresee a significant negative impact on the growth and benefits of aviation if tough and restrictive protectionist measures are implemented.”
Iata forecasts the Asia-Pacific region will see the greatest growth and account for more than half the new passengers over the two next decades.
It predicts China will displace the US as the world’s number-one aviation market in the mid-2020s and India will take third place, surpassing the UK, by 2024.
The association forecasts Indonesia will become the world’s fourth-largest aviation market and Thailand enter the top 10 by 2030.
However, Iata said its forecasts “assume an unchanged policy framework. Should protectionism expand, aviation would continue to grow but at a slower pace.”
Iata noted: “Aviation is sensitive to policies that support or undermine growth, and [at present] these seem to be pointing in the wrong direction.”
The association said: “This forecast is a cautionary warning to governments. They must clear the infrastructure bottlenecks to bring growth to their home markets and governments must understand that protectionism will see opportunities lost.”
It forecast routes to, from and within the Asia-Pacific will see an extra 2.35 billion passengers a year by 2037, with the regional market growing to 3.9 billion.
The North American market will increase by 527 million passengers to 1.4 billion, Iata forecast, and Europe will see an additional 611 million passengers, growing to 1.9 billion.
Over the same period, the Middle East market should increase to 501 million passengers, Latin American markets to 731 million and African markets to 334 million.