The eventual impact of swine flu on the travel industry will be as unknown as the total number of people affected.
However, John Edmunds, professor of infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said two things seem clear about H1N1 – how transmissible it is, and how pathogenic it is.
“It seems to be as transmissible as previous strains of influenza pandemics [in 1918 and 1968], but a lot milder,” said Edmunds.
What is also confusing for the public, is that the last two global outbreaks of disease that hit the headlines were SARS and bird flu – both of which did not spread as readily as swine flu, but are much deadlier.
“The real nightmare scenario would be if swine flu infects someone who has bird flu.” This could result in a virus as virulent as bird flu, and as transmissible as swine flu, Edmunds said.
“Shutting borders is pointless. It will be slamming the stable door long after the horse has bolted,” said Edmunds.
United Nations World Tourism Organization assistant secretary-general Geoffrey Lipman agreed that advising against travel and closing borders would do nothing to stop the disease.
“The social and economic disruption would probably have a worse effect than the virus itself – especially in a recession.”
Like ABTA chairman John McEwan, Lipman’s advice for travel agents it to continue encouraging customers to go on holiday.
“It is okay to travel, unless you have flu symptoms. The best precaution is to wash your hands frequently, and be careful when you have contact with people.
“It is also important to stay informed. The virus could mutate, so follow advice before leaving, during the trip and after, by visiting sos.travel, which provides the best possible information.”
For more information go to travelweekly.co.uk/swineflu