The fight against climate change need not mean the end to growth in aviation, according to a report by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC).
The report, published on December 8 in the opening week of the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, said targets on cutting emissions can be met if demand does not rise by more than 60% by 2050.
The committee suggested substituting a high-speed rail link for short-haul and domestic flights, which could cut demand growth by 10%, while video conferencing could cut business trips by 30% by 2050.
Fuel efficiency and operational improvements could reduce emissions by 30% and sustainable biofuels could account for 10% of aviation fuel use by 2050.
The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), which will manage carbon emission reduction from 2012, would play a key role. Under the scheme, airlines will have to buy carbon allowances to offset emissions, which could result in ticket price hikes.
A spokesman for industry body Sustainable Aviation welcomed the report, but said new technology would allow the industry to expand by more than 60% while still meeting the target.
However, a report by the Carbon Trust warned that EU ETS may not be enough to slow the growth in demand.
Head of investor engagement Bruce Duguid said: “Short-haul carriers will be the most affected by EU ETS because their margins are tight. Although it may affect long-haul carriers’ profits, their customers are less price sensitive and they will be able to pass on the charge by burying it in the price of the ticket or by advertising it as a carbon surcharge.
“Further taxation or limits on runway capacity may be needed,” said Duguid.