Will British Airways cabin crew strike or not? We won’t know for sure until the night before the first three-day walk-out beginning Saturday March 20.
There is clearly no love lost now between BA and officials of union Unite, who had to announce the first action by this Monday or lose the legal right to strike without another ballot.
The union is clearly nervous about going into battle with the airline – more because of the impact of a hostile public reaction on its members’ confidence than fear of BA’s plans to break a strike.
So it plans a consultative ballot on the new BA offer, which will give a public gauge of cabin crew feeling and give one of two outcomes – a reaffirmation of the mood for battle or the space for a climbdown and a deal.
The former might lead to renewed talks, but it’s the union’s feeling that Willie Walsh wants a strike that he feels he can win.
I wouldn’t be so sure. Walsh will hope to win next week’s ballot and avert a strike. If cabin crew do go out, it will have a major impact.
BA can maintain operations from London City as it intends and possibly 50% of services from Gatwick. But these are not key. Heathrow will be the decisive battleground, where BA can promise to deliver no more than “a substantial part” of its schedule.
Naturally, it will concentrate on the most profitable, key corporate travel routes, particularly New York. Yet we can probably discount claims of 1,000 “volunteers” trained to replace striking crew.
Unite puts the number at nearer 500 and points out some will be lacking security clearance or criminal record checks or US visas. Ten flights a day to New York, 15 cabin crew per flight – you can do the maths. Who is going to be handing out the trays elsewhere?
Unite believes Walsh is prepared to sack anyone who goes on strike, hence the plans for several days of action to increase the numbers involved. If he does, the dispute could turn very nasty and prolonged.
BA appears to assume public sympathy is on its side. That may change if a feeling takes hold that the airline is trying to break the union and the bulk of those affected are City of London types.
So I would prepare for a long period of disruption while anticipating it may not happen.