UK arrivals to the Caribbean this year are down by as much as 10%, and on one island by 25%, following the rise in Air Passenger Duty (APD) last November.
The decline is causing alarm as it contrasts with increasing visitor numbers from other markets.
Caribbean governments fear the next APD increase on November 1 will trigger a further dive in the number of UK tourists after a survey found almost one-third of British visitors said they would not return if fares rose too much.
A delegation of six Caribbean tourism ministers accompanied Caribbean Tourism Organization secretary-general Hugh Riley to the UK this week to lobby ministers and consult industry partners including Abta, British Airways and Virgin Atlantic.
The group was due to meet tourism minister John Penrose on Wednesday as well as officials at the Treasury and Department for Transport.
Riley said: “If numbers fall, so will the tax take. UK arrivals in the first six months fell, in one case by 25%, yet four of the seven economies most dependent on tourism showed an overall increase in visitors.”
He warned: “APD may not deliver what is expected. We asked 2,700 UK visitors what would happen if fares rose and, at one fare level, 30% said they would not return to the Caribbean.”
The region is especially hard hit as APD to the Caribbean is higher than to the US. The latest increase will make the tax on non-economy tickets £150.
Riley said: “A family of four will pay £600 in APD in a class just above economy.”