The recent spike in oil prices is not significant enough to undermine substantial global growth forecasts for travel and tourism unveiled by the World Travel and Tourism Council.
However, long term historically high prices approaching the $200 some have predicted would risk pushing the world back into recession, according to WTTC forecasters Oxford Economics.
The WTTC last week predicted 2011 will see the sector grow 4.5% in terms of its contribution to world GDP making it responsible for $1.8 trillion and directly employing over 99 million people.
Over the next decade growth was forecast to take the sector’s contribution to global GDP to $9.2 trillion adding 65 million jobs leaving it accounting for one in ten of all workers on the planet.
Adrian Cooper, managing director of Oxford Economics, the WTTC’s partner for its economic impact research, said the figures were based on oil price of around $100 a barrel.
This week oil breached the $100 mark and there have been predictions that we could be about to see $200 oil due to the civil and political unrest in oil producing countries.
Cooper said: “Events so far would not necessarily change the forecasts very much. We do not know how far the oil price will move.
“At this stage the impact will not be that great at a global level. It would have a small impact at $120 for this year but not one that is sufficiently material that it really changes the story of a global economy that’s recovering and a travel and tourism industry that’s recovering with it.
“Things would look different when we start to think about oil price going to $200, which could trigger the global economy to go back to recession. It’s a risk but not the most likely scenario.”
In his latest City Insider column for travelweekly.co.uk FT analyst David Stevenson said the oil price spike it not just down to unrest in the Middle East and north Africa and City speculators.