Airlines need travel restrictions relaxed as soon as possible and a recovery in demand by the summer or government support will be needed to survive, Airlines UK chief executive Tim Alderslade has warned.
The lockdown and travel bans over Christmas have heightened the difficulties for carriers despite the prospect of easing brought by the UK vaccination programme.
Alderslade said: “The government has been clear they do not foresee an economic package of support. The Chancellor promised us one in March, but then changed his mind. So the only way we can save aviation is to open up international travel.
“We need a cash-positive summer next year. If that doesn’t happen we’ll be back to having conversations with government about economic support.”
Alderslade told a Travel Weekly Insight Report launch event: “It’s impossible to overstate the importance of next summer.
“I’m not saying airlines are writing off winter, but the vast majority of revenue is going to come in the second half of next year and until that point airlines are going to continue to have to borrow significant amounts.”
He noted airlines have taken on “colossal amounts of debt”, citing Airlines UK member easyJet as an example.
Alderslade said: “EasyJet has taken on £3 billion in debt since March and that has been replicated across my membership.”
The carrier is seeking further funding after reporting a £1.2 billion loss for the 12 months to September.
Alderslade describe the test to release scheme, introduced on December 15, as a “first step” to re-opening travel.
But he said: “The problem is that until the government specifies that antigen tests are acceptable, the time to get the result for a PCR test is one or two days. So, in effect, quarantine is still a week.
“We hope pre-departure testing can be introduced in the first half of 2021. The Global Travel Taskforce report did look at moving to pre-departure testing, but that requires the government to agree testing with other governments and they’re finding it tough going.
“I suspect they are looking to the trial data coming in from British Airways and Virgin Atlantic and a number of overseas carriers.
“It may well be we can move towards a lateral-flow or LAMP test regime and we move towards a five-day or three-day quarantine. Ideally, we get rid of quarantine altogether – that is where the industry needs to get to.”
Alderslade argued: “We need to get there quickly because the summer is absolutely critical.
“We need a system whereby we can remove quarantine as quickly as possible in the New Year.”
He warned: “Alongside worries about the restrictions in place, there is a huge amount of people who, even if we got rid of quarantine, would still be nervous.
“But we need to get rid of quarantine, then we should see an opening up of international travel towards the second and third quarter of next year.”