The Covid-19 pandemic and its consequences wiped out 21 years of global aviation growth in a matter of months, new data reveals.
Passenger numbers this year fell 67% to levels last seen in 1999 due to worldwide travel restrictions, according to global aviation data firm Cirium.
Scheduled passenger flights dropped significantly to just 13,600 globally on April 25, compared to 2020’s busiest day on January 3 when Cirium tracked more than 95,000 flights – a fall of 86%.
Airlines operated 49% fewer flights in 2020 compared to 2019 – down from 33.2 million to just 16.8 million in the year to December.
The majority of the scheduled passenger flights flown this year were domestic – totalling 13 million (77%) with a just 3.8 million (23%) flying internationally due to closed borders and limited business travel.
Cirium data analysis recorded Southwest Airlines operating the most flights globally and in North America, with 869,800 in total. China Southern Airlines (500,700 flights) topped the table in Asia-Pacific, Ryanair in Europe (207,000 flights), Azul in Latin America (138,500 flights) and Qatar Airways (84,100 flights) in the Middle East and Africa.
While up to 30% of the global passenger fleet remains grounded, there are signs of recovery on the horizon, with only 10% of short-haul Airbus A320neos in storage. This shows narrow-body aircraft leading the revival with domestic and short-haul travel returning first, according to the company’s airline insights review.
Seven key trends outlined for next year include:
1. Consolidation
There will be greater consolidation of airlines, particularly in Asia-Pacific where more domestic competitors will merge or be acquired.
2. New generation aircraft
New-generation aircraft like the A320neo, and the return of the 737 Max, will provide reduced operating costs.
3. Aircraft retirement and reconfigurations
Surplus aircraft will be retired, such as the Boeing 747 and other, newer aircraft types which are projected to support the rising demand in denser leisure markets. More aircraft will also be reconfigured for carrying cargo only.
4. Forecasting demand in new ways
A 78% plunge in flight bookings was seen in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year – this will naturally change the way the industry forecasts demand. Online search and sentiment are becoming the primary indicators to calculate demand.
5. Airline operational flexibility
Airlines will need to deploy more dynamic scheduling with the increased volatility of flight scheduling, as the booking window has fallen from between six to 12-months to just six to eight-weeks.
6. Automated traveller experience
The implementation of AI technology will accelerate to automate the traveller experience and real-time proactive information will become more critical.
7. Rise of aircraft leasing
Aircraft leasing will push past 50% becoming the major manner in which aircraft are financed.
Cirium chief executive Jeremy Bowen said: “Airlines will have a long way to go before returning to 2019 levels particularly as international travel is significantly down and showing only slow signs of recovery, mainly in China and south-east Asia
“But Cirium is confident aviation will weather this difficult and terrible year and emerge in better shape – with younger more fuel-efficient aircraft and right-sized fleets – and will gradually navigate its way to recovery in the years ahead.”