Former cabinet member forecasts no decision on expansion until 2020 despite Davis report. Ian Taylor reports from the first Runways UK conference
Expansion: The next government will ‘duck’ decision, Adonis predicts
The next government will delay a decision on a new runway for the London “if it can”, whatever the recommendations of the Davies Commission, former transport secretary Lord Adonis warned last week.
Adonis, who led the Department for Transport under the last Labour government and gave the green light to a third runway at Heathrow, insisted “there is no getting away from the politics” of the issue. He described it as “a minefield without end”.
“Part of the problem is you never come to a complete crisis,” he told the Runways UK conference in London. “There is no subjective test of how long you can afford to wait [for a decision]. It will only happen if the business class is able to impress politicians that this will lead to a crisis.
“If whoever is the next [transport] secretary thinks they can duck it, they will.”
The Davies Commission is due to report in summer 2015, after the next election.
But Adonis warned: “The likely outcome is that whoever is in government will delay.
“They won’t just say ‘we’ll delay’, they will be clever. They will say ‘we need more work on this’ and hope it will be completed by 2020.”
He added: “There is a real problem with making such a recommendation after an election. The legitimacy of the decision is going to be a real issue.
“I suspect what will happen is 2015 will see the beginning of a process, not a decision that will be acted on immediately.”
However, Adonis said: “Setting up the commission was a big step forward – although never has a commission been given so long to decide such a simple question.”
Virgin Atlantic chief executive Craig Kreeger told the conference: “I remain perplexed by the UK attitude. I don’t think other countries are having this debate. I wonder would the auto industry or financial sector ever hear the same arguments about whether they have a right to grow.”
Cost: Passengers ‘will pay for whatever gets built’
Passengers will inevitably pay the price of building new runways and that will limit the cost and extent of aviation-infrastructure development.
Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) chief executive Andrew Haines told the Runways UK conference: “Whatever gets built will need to be paid for, and passengers will pay for it.”
Haines argued: “It is unlikely that, in the next 50 years, passengers will be prepared to pay for more than one new airport in the UK.”
He noted: “Typically, the CAA has allowed airports to recover the cost of developing infrastructure as it is incurred [rather than following construction of facilities]. That means developments need to be affordable.”
Haines warned: “There is a danger of [developing] a white elephant. The experience of Stansted should provide a cautionary tale. The 2003 Aviation White Paper allowed for a second runway at Stansted. Now Stansted is operating at 50% of capacity.”
Mayor: Moylan slams Davies’ conclusion
The Davies Commission has turned the decision on where to build a new London runway “into a sort of Bafta awards”, according to Daniel Moylan, adviser to London Mayor Boris Johnson.
Moylan told the Runways UK conference on airport infrastructure: “There is a touch of the Simon Cowells about it.”
Johnson slammed the commission as “biased” at the weekend. Moylan told the conference: “Boris believed the commission would be used to defer a decision and to arrive at the worst conclusion, and that appears to be the case.
“He is increasingly puzzled by the commission’s approach and alarmed by its interim report.”
The commission published an interim report in December, narrowing the options for new runways to one of two proposals at Heathrow and a third at Gatwick.
It promised “additional analysis” of proposals for a Thames Estuary airport, championed by Johnson, but described these as “extremely expensive” at up to £112 billion. The report also noted an estuary airport would “present major environmental issues” and “require the closure of Heathrow and London City”.
Stressing he spoke on behalf of Johnson, Moylan said: “The commission has taken a debatable approach. It has inflated the cost of a new airport and cut Heathrow’s own costs estimate.
“It has treated the mayor as though he was a private company with commercial interests [and] it’s time they engaged with the mayor, given his legal responsibilities.”