An independent report by an aviation analyst today outlines a series of emerging trends supporting the case that expansion at Gatwick is the best option to meet the aviation needs of the future.
The in-depth report by Chris Tarry focusses on the “game-changing” impact of new generation aircraft, along with other key areas the Airports Commission have highlighted as central to the UK’s runways debate including: the growth of low-cost carriers; the future of hub traffic through London; and how the long-haul market and point-to-point services will grow.
It is being published in the week that Norwegian Air launches new low-cost long-haul services from Gatwick to the US – one of the emerging industry trends Gatwick claims will transform the UK’s runways debate.
The report’s key findings include:
- New generation aircraft are a “game-changer” – how these aircraft feature in the fleet plans of leading airlines will have clear implications for the London expansion debate
- Short-haul traffic will continue to be the largest traffic segment, accounting for two-thirds of the London market
- Low-cost carriers will be the engine for London’s growth with new generation aircraft allowing them to develop further into the long-haul market
- New aircraft and Gulf expansion will lead to a reduced need for hub connecting traffic in London – meanwhile point-to-point services are dominant and will increase further
- The strength of London as a destination in its own right will increasingly attract non-UK airlines, maintaining the capital’s status as the world’s best connected city
Gatwick chief executive Stewart Wingate said: “A low-cost carrier flying to the Big Apple for a small price shows how fast aviation is changing and highlights one of a series of future trends that will have a huge bearing on the UK’s runways debate.
“As this new report outlines, it is the airlines’ fleet plans and order books of today that hold the key to the expansion needs of tomorrow. New generation aircraft and other key trends will lead to a reduction in ‘hub’ connecting traffic, an increase in point-to-point services and the continued growth of low-cost carriers, all of which are cornerstones of Gatwick’s case for a second runway.
“Just this week we have seen reports that Heathrow expansion would require increased landing costs, a move that would hold back many airlines, especially those that will be the engine for London’s growth. It is clear that Heathrow’s plans are yesterday’s solution to tomorrow’s problem and that only expansion of Gatwick can meet the challenges and demands of the future.”
Bjørn Kjos, chief executive of Norwegian said: “At Norwegian, we believe that everyone should be able to afford to fly. In order to compete in the global airline industry you need to adapt to changes and keep a constant focus on cost.
“Norwegian has a low-cost model, meaning a lean administration, brand new and fuel efficient aircraft and efficient operations. We fly direct routes with high passenger demand and choose centrally located airports such at Gatwick that share our mindset.”
Tarry outlines that the short-haul market accounts for two-thirds of London traffic and is dominated by low-cost carriers which have the vast majority of new short-haul aircraft orders and whose share of short-haul traffic “will grow to more than 60%”.