Travel companies expecting growing numbers of people to retire early and travel more could be in for a shock, say experts. Ian Taylor reports
An older but healthier population has been expected to bring aboom in ‘silver’ travellers, but experts on ageing warn of trends pointing to later retirement and lower pensions.
The government’s new‘champion’ for older workers, Ros Altmann, said retirement would “become a process rather than an event” as people work beyond the current retirement age rather than face living on lower incomes. Altmann is a pensions expert and former director-general of over-50s’ holidays and insurance group Saga.
One-third of the UK population is now over 50 and by 2030 there will be 20 million people in Britain over 60.
Altmann’s view was backed up by professor Sarah Harper of the University of Oxford, an expert on gerontology – the study of ageing – who will address Abta’s Travel Convention in September.
Harper told Travel Weekly: “There is an assumption that those aged 50-70 will be able to do a lot more travelling. But many of us are going to be in the workplace. A majority of people [in this age group] may be in work.”
She said: “It’s happening now – we are pushing back retirement.The pension age could be 70 within the next decade.
“As we push back life expectancy, we also seem to be pushing back the onset of ill health.”
That means people can work longer. At the same time, changes to pensions mean more people need or want to carry on working rather than retire.
Harper said: “Many 50 to 75-year-olds are going to be in the labour market.
“So there will be a reduction in those able to take three-month holidays. You will not have people retiring in their mid‑50s. The generation of people who retire in their mid-50s has gone.”
At the same time, she said: “A greater group of people are living longer with a lack of mobility. These people may have assets. They may want to travel. So the group of people that may increase may be a rich group with a lack of mobility.”
Then there is the issue of pensions. Harper said: “When people do retire, they are going to have pensions that have to last for 30 years. So the active 50-75 age group [of pensioners] is going to contract – because so many will be in the workforce – and they will not have the savings the previous generation had [when they do retire].”
She warned “there is a weakness” in business models based on assumptions of a growing, asset-rich, retired group of travellers.
Harper added: “Another thing is the ageing workforce. Not only customers are going to be ageing – workers are going to be ageing. How are companies going to cope with ageing guides, for example? If more frail, older people are travelling, the demand will be for older people [among staff] to interact with them.”
However, Harper suggested older people would be increasingly comfortable with the technology of travel. She said: “We tend to think of adaptation to technology as an age thing. But it is not that ‘old people’ can’t adapt to technology.
“Today’s 70-year-old people find technology more challenging, but people now in their 40s and 50s will be more tech-savvy [when they reach 70].”
Professor Harper is due to speak at The Travel Convention in Ljubljana, Slovenia, on September 21-23.
Abta announced this week that the Duchess of Northumberland will speak at the convention and R&B singer Alexander O’Neal will be performing.