Mintel associate director for travel Marloes de Vries unpicks the latest research
In mid-November 2021, before Omicron had been classified as a variant of concern, 24% of UK adults were planning to book a domestic or overseas holiday in the next three months. This is comparable to the previous month and well below levels seen prior to the pandemic, when 31% were planning to book a holiday in the three months following November 2019. In normal years, consumer intention to book holidays would gain momentum towards the end of the year, ahead of the peak booking season. However, a surge in COVID-19 cases on the European continent and a drop in consumer confidence, caused by the rising cost of living, fuelled more cautious consumer behaviour. This came after actual bookings moved closer and closer to pre-COVID-19 levels between February and November.
Tighter measures implemented in response to Omicron and changing entry requirements will no doubt impact consumers’ appetite to take holidays in the short term, but how are their plans for their main holiday in 2022 shaping up in light of the latest developments?
Staycation intentions have recovered to pre-pandemic levels, while international travel is once again in a precarious position
In the last week of November, Mintel asked consumers where they plan to take their main holiday in 2022, which is the holiday they are planning to spend the most on in terms of travel and/or accommodation. These higher-value holidays are most likely to be taken between April and September. Results show that the proportion planning to spend their main holiday in the UK has recovered to pre-pandemic levels; 32% of UK adults plan to take their main holiday in the UK next year. This is similar to the share who took their main holiday in the UK in the year prior to the pandemic (31%) and up from 26% who planned to take their main holiday in the UK in 2021 (when asked in January 2021).
However, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding international travel. 32% of UK adults plan to take their main holiday abroad in 2022. This is below pre-pandemic levels, when 45% of Brits spent their main holiday overseas in the year prior to the pandemic, and similar to the share who planned to take their main holiday overseas in 2021 (31%, when asked in January 2021).
Those aged 16-34 remain most open to travelling abroad; 39% of those planning to travel overseas for their main break are aged 16-34 compared to 30% of those planning a staycation.
Regulations over the coming months will define the success of the summer holiday season
Although nearly 1 in 10 Brits had not yet decided on their holiday destination, it is unlikely that the volume of overseas holidays will reach pre-pandemic levels during 2022’s peak holiday season. However, once confidence in international travel recovers, some brands could report a quicker recovery due to the gap left in the market as a result of the Thomas Cook collapse.
Regulations will continue to have a big say on the speed of recovery. When looking back at 2021, half of those planning to holiday overseas in 2021 as of January that year had changed their mind by June. This was mostly due to a lack of clarity on the resumption of international travel in the first quarter, in addition to the fact that only a small number of countries made the UK’s green list at first, with Portugal, the most visited destination on the initial list, removed soon after.
It is hoped that the vaccination programme will place the UK holiday market in a better position this time around, however, the risk of new mutations will continue to pose a threat until the virus is under control globally. It is therefore vital that the travel industry continues to lobby for a clear government policy on how to deal with future variants of concern.
The cautious traveller will favour domestic holidays, which will likely see this segment’s volume and value exceed pre-COVID-19 levels during 2022’s peak holiday season. Local food and drink and nature-based experiences are in high demand and will likely grow in popularity due to growing consumer concerns about the environment.
Figure 1: Participation and main holidaying intentions by destination, 2019-21
Note: the main holiday is defined as the holiday which Brits are planning to spend the most on in terms of travel and/or accommodation.
* fieldwork took place from 6-18 February 2020 among 2,000 internet users aged 16+
** fieldwork took place from 21-26 January 2021 among 500 internet users aged 16+
*** fieldwork took place from 25 November – 1 December 2021 among 1,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Kantar Profiles/Mintel, February 2020 vs January 2021 and November/December 2021
Consumers continue to adapt a wait-and-see attitude
11% of those planning to stay in the UK for their main holiday plan to book before the end of 2021, while 17% plan to book between January and the end of March 2022. 7% of those planning to travel overseas for their main break plan to book before the end of this year, while 20% plan to book in January to March 2022. This is roughly half the level we would expect to see in a ‘normal’ year. A large proportion did not yet know when they will book, when asked between 25 November and 1 December 2021 (34% of domestic holidaymakers and 23% of overseas holidaymakers).
Figure 2: Booking intentions for main holiday, by destination, 2021
“When do you expect to book your main holiday for 2022?”
Base UK: 322 internet users aged 16+ who are planning to take their main holiday in the UK
Base overseas: 324 internet users aged 16+ who are planning to take their main holiday abroad
Source: Kantar Profiles/Mintel, 25 November – 1 December 2021
Families; a key target group in the short term
Families are most likely to book their main holiday in the short term; 51% of those planning to book a holiday in the period January to March 2022 are parents of under-18s. Mintel’s Family Holidays – UK, 2021 Report shows that the UK domestic holiday market will continue to benefit from the COVID staycation trend. Just over a fifth (22%) of family holidaymakers have discovered a new place in the UK for a family holiday as a result of COVID-19. 60% of this group expect to take their next main family holiday in the UK. These domestic discoverers place a relatively high value on being close to nature, reducing their carbon footprint and being able to take the family pet on holiday.
There is also pent-up demand for family holidays overseas, particularly among those who have been forced to cancel trips abroad. Mintel’s research on important holiday factors shows that these stuckcationers are especially likely to prioritise rest and relaxation, sightseeing and learning about different cultures. Rediscovering the excitement of foreign travel and getting under the skin of a destination will be key motivators to travel internationally.
Lockdown savings waiting to be unlocked
On the one hand, the rising cost of living will make some consumers more price-sensitive. This will result in higher demand for low-cost options, such as camping holidays, while all-inclusive concepts should prove more popular to those looking to control costs. On the flip side, there are still a lot of lockdown savings waiting to be unlocked and holidays are deemed a priority. More than half of travellers who have been able to increase their savings since the start of the coronavirus outbreak are interested in upgrading elements of their holidays in the coming year. 5-star accommodation, accommodation with private luxury amenities, such as a Jacuzzi, and spa/treatments are the most desired elements among those looking to ramp up their holiday expenditure.
What it means
The late booking trend will continue, while families will be an important target group for holiday bookings in the coming months.
Ongoing uncertainty around international travel will likely see demand for staycations exceed pre-COVID-19 levels during 2022’s peak holiday season. The way the regulations evolve in the coming months will have a big impact on the performance of the domestic and overseas holiday markets.
While some consumers will favour more affordable budget breaks, others may be tempted to use some of their lockdown savings to make upcoming trips extra memorable.
You can obtain Mintel’s Family Holidays – UK, 2021 report here.