Government advisory committee urges halt to airport expansion amid ‘lack of urgency’ on emissions. Ian Taylor reports
The UK is making slow progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and should halt airport expansion, the Climate Change Committee which advises the government warned last week.
The recommendation in the committee’s 2023 report drew praise from environmental groups but criticism from industry bodies, with the Airport Operators Association (AOA) insisting: “The aviation industry and UK government both have a plan for UK aviation to achieve net zero by 2025 while accommodating growth in air travel.”
By contrast, Cait Hewitt of the Aviation Environment Federation pointed out the committee had “been telling the government for years to get a grip on aviation demand and urged ministers “to stop giving in to the aviation industry’s demands for growth and recognise that in a climate emergency all sectors of the economy need to start doing things differently”.
The Climate Change Committee’s report criticises the government for an “over-reliance on technological solutions” and, referring to the Covid-19 pandemic, notes: “Recent experience has shown substantial changes to behaviours are possible.”
It argues: “It is essential that policies to empower and support people to make low-carbon lifestyle choices are implemented now, especially on home energy use . . . and reducing air and car travel.”
The committee makes 27 ‘priority recommendations’ of which “No airport expansion without a UK-wide capacity management framework” is one.
Its report notes the “continued airport expansion” underway in the UK and argues: “No airport expansions should proceed until a UK-wide capacity management framework is in place to assess annually and, if required, to control the CO2 emissions and non-CO2 effects [of air travel].
“A framework should be operational by the end of 2024. After a framework is developed, there should be no net airport expansion unless the carbon intensity of aviation is outperforming the government’s emissions reduction pathway and can accommodate the additional demand.”
‘Carbon intensity’ refers to the volume of carbon emitted per passenger per kilometre flown. This has fallen steadily by about 1.5% a year through the introduction of more fuel-efficient aircraft. But that does not stop aviation’s overall CO2 emissions growing if passenger numbers increase by more than 1.5%.
The committee notes aviation was responsible for 7% of UK CO2 emissions in 2022 despite air traffic and emissions being 25% lower than in 2019 as travel recovered from the pandemic.
UK aviation emissions will be required to fall 17% on that 2022 figure by 2035 to hit the government’s reduction target – less than in every other sector of the economy, with surface transport required to cut emissions 58%, industry 69%, and electricity supply 93%.
Even other hard-to-abate sectors such as agriculture (20%) and shipping (22%) have higher reduction targets. But the committee warns aviation won’t hit its target without a block on airport expansion.
‘Air travel ought to be more expensive’
The UK’s Jet Zero Strategy to reduce aviation emissions, published in July 2022, allows for 70% growth in passenger demand on 2018 by 2050 while “relying heavily on technology to compensate for increased emissions”.
The committee recommends no more than a 25% increase in the same period and urges the government “to incentivise alternative transport modes”, arguing: “Prices of air travel ought to be more expensive relative to lower-emission modes.”
It notes the long-term trend in aviation “shows a gradual increase in emissions due to rising demand for long-haul flights only partly being compensated by improved efficiencies”.
The committee’s report argues the Jet Zero Strategy “carries considerable risks”, describing it as “high risk due to its reliance on nascent technology – especially rapid SAF [sustainable aviation fuel] uptake and aircraft efficiency savings”.
It points outs the government does not have alternative policies to ensure emissions reductions “if these technologies are not delivered on time and at scale” and calls on the Government to “develop a suite of policy and technology options to address aviation demand”.
The report argues: “Demand management is the most effective way of reducing aviation emissions [and] the government has a range of options to manage demand, such as digital technologies, addressing private flying and providing lower-cost domestic rail travel.”
The committee notes UK airports “continue to develop capacity expansion proposals”, arguing: “Applications currently under consideration would translate to capacity for an additional 16.5 million terminal passengers. The potential Heathrow and Gatwick expansions would add a further 71.6 million terminal passengers if approved.
“If all applications were approved, this would increase terminal passenger capacity by 97.4 million compared to 2018 levels, bringing total capacity to 467 million.”
This would bring passenger numbers close to the Jet Zero Strategy’s 70% increase in passengers by 2050, which equates to 482 million.
The committee warns: “This is incompatible with the UK’s Net Zero target unless aviation’s carbon-intensity is outperforming the government’s pathway and can accommodate this additional demand. Current government policy is not delivering an outcome consistent with this.
“No airport expansions should proceed until a UK-wide capacity management framework is in place.
“[This] framework should be developed by the Department for Transport [DfT] . . . over the next 12 months and be operational by the end of 2024 at the latest.”
From then on, the committee tells the government: “Any additional airport capacity that would facilitate increased aviation demand should not take place unless corresponding reductions in capacity are made at other UK airports.”
The report also notes the government’s SAF mandate “is delayed and dependent on uncertain feedstock supply” despite the government target of 10% SAF use by 2030. The Committee’s ‘pathway’ to emissions reduction is more cautious, assuming just 2% SAF uptake by 2030.
It makes a series of recommendations, including urging the DfT to “track the carbon-intensity of, and demand for, different aviation ticket types (e.g. business, first class, economy), and demand for private flying”.
Other recommendations include to “begin work to understand what additional measures [could] be rapidly deployed if the government is not on track to meet its aviation pathway”; to “start monitoring the non-CO2 effects of aviation”; and to “ensure the SAF Mandate is legislated for to become operational by the start of 2025 . . . [and] includes provisions to ensure eligible fuels do not have a harmful non-CO2 impact.”
‘Pace of emissions reduction slow’
The Climate Change Committee accuses the government of a general “lack of urgency”, not just in relation to aviation, and insists “pace should be prioritised” in reducing emissions.
It concludes: “The pace of emissions reduction has been slow in all sectors apart from electricity supply.”
The chair of the committee Lord Deben – a former Conservative environment secretary and a minister in the Thatcher government – warns in a forward to the report: “The commitment of government has waned. There is a hesitation to commit fully to key pledges. . . Our confidence in the achievement of the UK’s 2030 target has markedly declined.”
The report, which runs to more than 430 pages, notes: “For many in the UK, 2022 was the year climate change arrived.” But it argues: “Policy development continues to be slow.
“Our response to the recent fossil fuel price crisis did not embrace rapid steps . . . to reduce energy demand and grow renewable generation. We have backtracked on fossil fuel commitments.”
The committee warns that for the UK to reach the government’s commitment of “at least a 68% fall in emissions from 1990 levels [by 2030] . . . the rate of emissions reduction outside the power sector must almost quadruple”.
That seems barely possible.
The Climate Change Committee was established in 2008 under the Climate Change Act to advise the UK and devolved governments on emissions targets and to report to Parliament on progress in reducing emissions and preparing for climate change.
It might be instructive to know how many ministers read it.