European air traffic this summer reached 93% of the 2019 level, two percentage points lower than forecast in March.
That is according to European air navigation safety body Eurocontrol which has revised down its future air traffic forecast in light of the shortfall and a downward revision in Europe’s economic outlook.
Eurocontrol issued an updated seven-year traffic forecast taking account of the latest data and economic trends resulting in a “marginally downward” revision of its last forecast in March when it predicted summer 2023 air traffic would hit 95% of 2019’s level.
It noted flights in Europe had “largely evolved as anticipated” in March but there had been “a slight fall-off since June”.
Eurocontrol now forecasts air traffic will reach 92% of the 2019 level this year, having hit 93% in July and August, before rising to 98% in 2024 and 100% in 2025.
However, it predicts traffic in peak summer next year will return to the level of 2019.
Beyond 2025, Eurocontrol now expects flight growth to average 1.6% per year in its base forecast, owing to “greater uncertainties” – including higher than forecast inflation, “pressure on oil prices, economic risks and environmental concerns”.
In making its revised forecast, Eurocontrol notes: “The recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is now largely complete. However, the network is still impacted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and there is considerable variation across Europe.”
In particular, it suggests Germany – Europe’s second-largest aviation market after the UK – faces challenges due to “economic sluggishness and domestic market pressures”.
By contrast, Eurocontrol reports countries in southeast Europe “are experiencing robust growth”.
Eurocontrol points out its latest forecast was prepared before the eruption of violence in Israel and Gaza and warns: “A further deterioration of the economy, escalation of geopolitical tensions or other unpredictable events may have a negative impact on traffic.”
It also warns: “The oil price outlook remains very uncertain [and] additional measures to reduce emissions from aviation are a downside risk.”