EU proposals to cut airline emissions threaten to increase fares in Europe by an average 16% by 2030, according to a report commissioned by airports association ACI Europe.
The report, an Assessment of the Impact of the Fit for 55 Policies on Airports by economics consultancy Oxera, was published last week.
The European Commission released its ‘Fit for 55’ package of proposals – which aim to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% of 1990 levels by 2030 – in two batches in July and December last year.
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But ACI Europe noted it tabled the package “without a comprehensive assessment of its impact” on aviation and said: “Oxera’s report shows the EC proposals will result in significant fare increases, reducing demand and impacting on EU air connectivity.”
The report suggests intra-EU flights will see the greatest impact. Fares for flights within Europe would rise by 16% by 2030 under the proposals, leading to an 11% reduction in demand, according to Oxera.
It warned regional airports would be worst affected, “hurting regions highly dependent on tourism”, with the impact on flights beyond the EU mitigated by travellers using hubs located in other regions “especially the Middle East and Asia”.
The report suggests fares for flights beyond the EU would increase by just 2% by 2030 as a result of the proposals, leading to an estimated 4% reduction in demand.
Extending its analysis to 2050, Oxera estimates there would be further increases in fares and a 12% reduction in demand for intra-EU flights and a 9% reduction beyond the EU.
ACI Europe called for remedies to address the impact of Fit for 55 proposals, including financial support for the sector, incentives for use of sustainable aviation fuel, and the allocation of revenues from fuel taxes and the EU emissions trading scheme (ETS) to aviation decarbonisation.
It also urged the EU to prohibit member states from setting different national targets.
ACI Europe director general Olivier Jankovec said the EU’s Fit for 55 package threatens “unwelcome and unanticipated consequences” and warned: “The process will be costly and lengthy.”