The bank holiday weekend passed without significant disruption to air travel with the Airport Operators Association reporting “everything seems to have gone well”.
Aviation sources warned staff shortages at ground handlers remain a problem but said soaring energy costs and a forecast recession now pose the biggest risk to airline schedules.
British Airways announced the cancellation of 10,000 flights to and from Heathrow this winter “to minimise disruption”. But sources suggested the cuts were more to do with BA slimming its schedule in anticipation of reduced demand.
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An airline source said: “BA’s adjustments to its schedule aren’t necessarily related to problems on the ground. It’s going to be a tough winter. Every airline is looking at its schedule.
Carriers will be more cautious. If they get capacity right, they can weather a recession. If there is overcapacity they have a problem – yields collapse.”
A second source suggested: “Bookings for winter aren’t great. BA adjusted its schedule to not fly half-empty planes. If demand turns out to be there, it will have higher fares.”
The same source warned: “Ground handling still has big problems. We still have airport teams taking luggage out of aircraft and that is not sustainable. Ground handlers have hardly increased wages and there aren’t people hanging around on the dole looking for jobs. We’ll have a problem so long as ground handlers don’t pay the going rate.”
Gatwick announced the end of its limit on passengers from September 1 despite Heathrow’s cap on passenger numbers remaining in place until October 29.
However, a source insisted: “Airlines scream blue murder about the Heathrow cap, but fundamentally it is working for passengers who fly.”
There was a setback on rail services with Eurostar announcing a halt to direct trains from London to Disneyland Paris next summer, saying: “We need to focus on our core routes to ensure the level of service and experience customers expect.” The operator said it would review Disneyland services for 2024. Eurostar confirmed that services from Ashford International and Ebbsfleet won’t resume for another two years.
More: Research finds travel disruption deterred consumers from flying
Comment: Assessing how delays and cancellations are affecting customer confidence