The ‘Envisioning Tourism in 2030’ report allows for growth, but not as we know it. Ian Taylor reports
The Travel Foundation report ‘Envisioning Tourism in 2030 and Beyond’, published on Wednesday, rules out a 50% reduction in emissions by 2030 noting “only Covid-like volume restrictions” would allow this.
A 50% reduction by the end of the decade is recommended by the UN and has been signed up to by hundreds of travel organisations in the Glasgow Declaration on Climate Action.
Indeed, the report urges travel organisations to sign up to the declaration if they have not already.
But it argues: “By combining all available measures . . . slowing the rate of growth of aviation and capping [the] longest haul trips to 2019 levels [the industry could] reach 50% by spring 2036 [and] get very close to net zero by 2050.”
The study behind the report used a ‘systems dynamics model’ to examine “what a thriving, decarbonising tourism sector could look like in 2030 and 2050” and found only one “plausible decarbonisation pathway that allows the sector to grow”.
This would require “trillion-dollar investments in all available decarbonisation measures . . . and prioritising trips which reduce emissions most readily – by road, rail and [over] shorter distances.
“Some limits must be applied to slow aviation growth until it is fully able to decarbonise, in particular capping the longest-distance trips [over 16,000kms return] to 2019 levels.”
This would prevent flights from the UK to Cape Town, Las Vegas, Bangkok and beyond.
The report points out flights of this length “made up just 2% of all trips in 2019 but are by far the most polluting. If left unchecked, they will quadruple by 2050, accounting for 41% of tourism’s total emissions yet still just 4% of all trips.”
The report suggests continuing as we are will mean “tourism-related emissions rise steeply by 2050, up 73% compared to 2019” and notes decarbonisation requires “nothing short of transformation”.
However, it argues the investment required “is no more than 2% or 3% of total tourism revenue over the period” and adds: “Instead of calling for more money, we call for the redistribution and smarter and more equitable use of available investments, subsidies and resources.”
The study forecasts air tickets will be two-thirds more expensive in real terms by 2030 than in 2019 and three-times more expensive by 2050 and allows for just 19% more flights in 2050 than in 2019, but over shorter distances.
It was published in collaboration with Breda University of Applied Sciences, the European Tourism Futures Institute at NHL Stenden University of Applied Sciences, the Centre of Expertise in Leisure, Tourism and Hospitality, and the Netherlands Board of Tourism.
Emissions-reduction measures
The report considers a range of emissions-reduction measures including use of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), electrification and improved energy efficiency, infrastructure improvements, taxation and subsidies, and carbon offsetting.
The academic researchers examining these found: “It soon became apparent that current strategies which rely on carbon offsetting (even assuming 100% effectiveness), technological efficiencies and SAF are woefully inadequate.”
They note a review of 5,700 carbon offset schemes, published in 2016, found only 2% delivered the reductions promised and they dismiss the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (Corsia) as “an irrelevance with barely any impact”.
The study argues “SAF is available, but supplies limited”, and advances in developing electric and hydrogen-fuelled aircraft “get travel and tourism to net-zero emissions but only by the end of the century”.
The researchers report using taxation to manage demand “could temporarily reduce growth [but] was found of limited use”. They conclude a low carbon tourism industry will require “political and business will and the right incentives to invest at a huge scale in clean energy solutions”.
The model allows the number of trips to double (rising 102%) by 2050 on 2019, and revenue to increase by 80%, but only with a substantial increase in short-distance trips of less than 900km return by car, rail, coach or ferry.
Tourism Decarbonisation Scenario
The report outlines a Tourism Decarbonisation Scenario (TDS) which makes sobering reading despite its intention to show tourism can grow while meeting emissions-reduction targets.
It concludes: “We’re at a fork in the road, with two distinct options: decouple tourism from emissions . . . or accept the need to curb the global tourism system.
“Climate change is already causing dangerous and widespread disruption. If temperatures reach the limits of human survivability as predicted under high emissions scenarios, tourism in many places will effectively become impossible.”
The report notes “tourism is particularly exposed to climate risks” and argues: “We cannot simply rely on technology, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and offsetting schemes. Technology arrives far too late, SAF has serious resource constraints, and offsetting is inadequate and unreliable.”
It also suggests “surprisingly little is known about the future global impact of climate change on tourism” and warns: “The failure to account for climate-related risk leaves many tourism businesses, investors and local workforces vulnerable.”
In a forward to the report, Travel Foundation chief executive Jeremy Sampson argues: “We have delayed action for too long and our options have narrowed.
“We should call out the many overly optimistic strategies and plans which assume we can carry on as usual.”