European air traffic management body Eurocontrol has warned of a risk of “major” delays to flights this summer following the widespread disruption of last year.
The warning came in Eurocontrol’s latest air traffic forecast for Europe, issued at the turn of the year, which stated: “We anticipate a risk of major air traffic flow management [ATFM] delays.”
Eurocontrol reported it is “working closely” with air navigation service providers and airlines on “mitigation measures” as well as “working more closely with airports to prepare for summer 2023”.
Mitigation measures could include revised capacities in some airspace sectors, reorganised airspace and flight rerouteing.
However, it warned: “Getting closer to pre-pandemic traffic levels will not be easy. Ramping back up close to 90% of 2019 traffic over the summer [of 2022] caused immense difficulties.”
Eurocontrol suggested: “2023 will be a watershed year for the network, requiring all actors to pull out all the stops to keep delays down against a backdrop of ongoing airspace issues triggered by the Ukraine war, extra aircraft in the system, possible industrial action, ongoing staffing challenges, [air traffic control] system changes and the return of demand from China and the Far East.”
It argued: “While staffing issues may progressively be solved, the risk of industrial action in response to economic conditions is rising.”
Eurocontrol added: “Airspace unavailability [due to the war in Ukraine] will continue to disrupt flows and put pressure on certain sectors [of airspace]. This will further exacerbate demand as airlines restore capacity, and demand from key Asian markets progressively returns following China’s decision to ease travel restrictions. Planned system changes will also impact flows and capacity.”
It warned keeping delays down “will require formidable efforts from all operational actors”.
Eamonn Brennan, Eurocontrol director general, noted “a backdrop of supply chain issues, possible industrial action, airspace unavailability, sector bottlenecks, rising demand and system changes” and said: “2023 is set to be the most challenging year of the last decade. Keeping summer delays down will be an immense task.”