Europe is leading a rebound in tourism with destinations handling almost three times as many international arrivals in the first quarter of 2022 as in the same period in 2021.
International tourist arrivals are now expected to reach 55% to 70% of 2019 pre-pandemic levels this year.
But the forecast in the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer depends on several circumstances.
These include the rate at which destinations continue to lift travel restrictions, the evolution of the war in Ukraine, possible new outbreaks of Covid-19 and global economic conditions, particularly inflation and energy prices.
Europe received almost four times as many international arrivals (+280%) as in the first three months of 2021, with results driven by strong intra-regional demand.
In the Americas arrivals more than doubled (+117%) in the same three months.
However, arrivals in Europe and the Americas were still 43% and 46% below 2019 levels respectively.
Although international tourism remains 61% below 2019 levels, the gradual recovery is expected to continue throughout 2022 as more destinations ease or lift travel restrictions and pent-up demand is unleashed, according to the UNWTO.
As many as 45 destinations, including 31 in Europe, had no Covid-19 related restrictions in place as of June 2 and an increasing number of destinations in Asia have started to ease similar curbs.
“Despite these positive prospects, a challenging economic environment coupled with the military offensive of the Russian Federation in Ukraine pose a downside risk to the ongoing recovery of international tourism,” the UNWTO cautioned.
“The Russian offensive on Ukraine seems to have had a limited direct impact on overall results so far, although it is disrupting travel in eastern Europe.
“However, the conflict is having major economic repercussions globally, exacerbating already high oil prices and overall inflation and disrupting international supply chains, which results in higher transport and accommodation costs for the tourism sector.”
The barometer also revealed that $1 billion was lost in export revenues from international tourism in 2021, adding to the $1 billion lost in the first year of the pandemic.
Total export revenues from tourism reached an estimated $713 billion in 2021, a 4% increase in real terms from 2020 but still 61% below 2019 levels. International tourism receipts reached $602 billion, also 4% higher in real terms than in 2020.
Europe and the Middle East recorded the best results, with earnings climbing to about 50% of pre-pandemic levels in both regions.
However, the amount being spent per trip is on the rise – from an average $1,000 in 2019 to $1,400 in 2021.