Overall air passenger numbers are not expected exceed pre-Covid-19 levels until 2024, according to Iata.
The airline trade body expects volumes to reach four billion, or 103% of the 2019 total, by then.
Expectations for the shape of the near-term recovery have shifted slightly, reflecting the evolution of government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets.
Overall traveller numbers in 2021 were 47% of 2019 levels. The total is expected to improve to 83% in 2022, 94% in 2023, 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.
International numbers last year were 27% of 2019 levels. This is projected to improve to 69% in 2022, 82% in 2023, 92% in 2024 and 101% in 2025.
This is a slightly more optimistic near-term international recovery scenario compared to November 2021, based on the progressive relaxation or elimination of travel restrictions in many markets, according to Iata.
“This has seen improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, strengthening the baseline for recovery.
“Asia-Pacific is expected to continue to lag the recovery with the region’s largest market, China, not showing any signs of relaxing its severe border measures in the near future,” the association pointed out.
Domestic volumes were 61% of 2019 levels and this is expected to improve to 93% in 2022, 103% in 2023, 111% in 2024 and 118% in 2025.
The outlook for the evolution of domestic traveller numbers is slightly more pessimistic than in November. While the US and Russian domestic markets saw recovery – based on projections prior to the Ukraine invasion – Iata said the same is not true for the domestic markets of China, Canada, Japan and Australia.
Iata director general Willie Walsh said: “The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from Covid-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant.
“People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic.
“The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions that governments place on travel.
“Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus.
“And the economic and social hardship caused for very limited benefit is simply no longer acceptable in a growing number of markets. As a result, the progressive removal of restrictions is giving a much-needed boost to the prospects for travel.”
He added: “In general, we are moving in the right direction, but there are some concerns.
“Asia-Pacific is the laggard of the recovery. While Australia and New Zealand have announced measures to reconnect with the world, China is showing no signs of relaxing its zero-Covid strategy.
“The resulting localised lock-downs in its domestic market are depressing global passenger numbers even as other major markets like the US are largely back to normal.”