A strong recovery in premium traffic before the onset of the Omicron wave of Covid-19 in December has given Iata cause for optimism on the return of international air travel.
Speaking as Iata released its latest traffic data last week, director general Willie Walsh reported: “Premium travel has been recovering at the same rate as economy travel.”
He noted: “That could come as a surprise to people, particularly those who have focused on business travel. It surprised me.
“But the premium market has been recovering at the same rate as economy travel [on international routes] and I don’t expect any change.”
He added: “This doesn’t necessarily relate to business travel, but it’s a positive indication.”
Walsh explained: “There is a misunderstanding of the importance of business travel. It is significant, but it shouldn’t be confused with premium. You get a lot of people traveling in premium cabins on leisure. Premium long-haul tends to be strong throughout the cycle.”
He insisted: “All the indicators are that the willingness to travel remains strong. Once restrictions are removed the underlying demand is good [and] more and more governments are relieving restrictions.”
Walsh acknowledged: “Omicron clearly had some impact [on the pace of recovery]. But this is probably the shortest period we’ve seen restrictions introduced and then removed. Restrictions have been in place seven to eight weeks and it looks like they will be removed within about 10 weeks.
“Restrictions being removed gives confidence. There is a long way to go but the signs are very positive. I’m encouraged by the recovery in international premium travel.”
Iata chief economist Marie Owens Thomsen agreed, saying: “We saw the year end better than we feared given Omicron. It will have an impact in January-February but then we expect to reconnect with the improving trend we saw previously.”
She argued: “We need regulators to remove emergency regulations as fast as they brought them in.”
In its latest assessment of international passenger traffic, Iata concluded: “The air travel recovery is expected to restart again from March.”
However, Walsh noted increased airline capacity would not necessarily translate into comparable rises in passenger traffic everywhere, particularly in Asia where more restrictions remain in place.
He said: “Flight volumes will be largely controlled by slot rules. Through 2021 we saw very low seat factors – within Asia a 27% [average] seat factor, and within Europe 73%.”