International inbound travel to Europe is not forecast to reach pre-pandemic levels until 2025, while domestic travel will fully recover next year.
Latest data issued by the European Travel Commission (ETC) indicates a recovery of 75% of 2019 travel volumes to Europe last year.
A strong rebound in tourism is expected to continue well into 2023, though at a slower pace in the face of global pressures such as high inflation, war in Ukraine and consequent energy crisis, and the looming economic recession.
European travel recovery persisted in late-2022, despite a gloomier economic outlook, supported by a strong pent-up demand.
The ETC said: “Excess savings during the pandemic likely extended the summer season as travellers were eager to get out and travel after three years of Covid-19 lockdowns.
“Year-to-date data, compared to 2019, shows that almost one in two reporting destinations have recovered more than 80% of their pre-pandemic foreign arrivals. Overall, southern Mediterranean destinations posted the fastest recovery as the year ended.”
Long-haul travel has been a key weakness to date in the post-pandemic rebound, mostly due to greater costs associated with overseas travel, higher hesitancy related to Covid-19 safety concerns and the slower re-opening of Asia Pacific countries.
“However, booking data saw an uptick in the middle of last year, largely originating from the Southwest Pacific and South Asia regions,” the ETC added.
As the Asia Pacific region broadly reopened over the second half of 2022, travel demand from the region to Europe is likely to rebound in 2023.”
The end of the three-year-old zero-Covid policy in China should lead to a gradual return of Chinese travellers to Europe from the second quarter of 2023, as “significant barriers” remain.
The ITC warned that the logistics around restoring flight routes to reconnect China to the rest of the world will require time. Most Chinese travellers will also need to acquire a visa to travel and many may need to renew their passports.
Transatlantic growth from North America “might slow” this year as the economic outlook points to a mild recession due to challenges associated with inflation, labour markets and consumer and business confidence.
ETC president Luis Araujo said:“Looking forward to 2023, we expect the tourism sector in Europe to continue its strong rebound.
“As European short-haul travel is well on its way to recovery, the tourism industry’s attention has now turned to long-haul arrivals.
“In welcome news, we can expect the long-awaited return of Asia Pacific visitors in the coming months.
“As the industry navigates the many challenges it faces this year, it is vital that the sector continues to be receptive to consumer demand, improving the visitor experience at destination and targeting markets and segments less affected by economic slowdown.”