Average booking values of holidays will “flatten out” in 2024, Travel Counsellors managing director Kirsten Hughes has predicted.
Speaking at Travel Weekly’s Future of Travel Conference, Hughes said all travel businesses had benefitted from the year-on-year rise in holiday prices.
But she encouraged companies to be prepared for an adjustment in average booking values in the next year.
“I think average booking values will flatten out next year and normalise in some areas,” she said, adding: “We are focusing on more premium [product].”
Speaking afterwards, Hughes said some prices had risen post-Covid because not all destinations were open to travel, with some taking 12 months to open up properly to overseas holidaymakers.
But she said it was unlikely prices would drop back to what they were pre-Covid. “I don’t think it will go back to 2019 levels,” she said.
Speaking in a separate session at the Future of Travel Conference, Travel Trade Consultancy director Martin Alcock also forecast a change in average prices in 2024.
“I think a lot of the recovery has been price-led,” he said, adding: “Prices on average might come down but the key thing you need to look at is margin. If prices can come down but profit margins are retained, that would be a great thing.”
Industry estimates of increases in holiday average booking values this year compared with last year vary, with some citing around 12% mainly due to rises in air fares but also hotel costs, especially for properties unable to fully reopen because of recruitment issues.
In its latest trading update, Tui said average selling prices for summer 2023 were 27% up on the same period in 2019 and 8% up on last year. The company’s average selling prices for winter 2023-2024 bookings from the UK are 3% up year on year.