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Warning of geopolitical pressure on global airline passenger growth

Global airline passenger traffic grew by 5.6% in May over the same month last year but the sector faces a period of market instability.

Figures released by the Airports Council International show that the May performance was close to one percentage point below its year-to-date growth figure.

However, the growth “remains a robust demonstration of resilience considering the global climate of increasing geopolitical tension”.

But ACI added: “May was a difficult month for Middle Eastern airports, with the Qatari blockade close to entering its second year on 5 June and showing few signs of moving towards a resolution.

“The region’s passenger traffic has been suffering from slowdowns since tensions erupted and travel restrictions were enacted and has been trending downwards ever since.

“Apart from a short reprieve in March, where passenger traffic grew on a year-over-year basis, the region’s figures have been in the negative for all of 2018 up to this point.”

ACI director general Angela Gittens said: “The air transport sector has shown remarkable resilience to the tense climate that has descended over international relations and trade.

“Tensions include the ongoing Qatari blockade and the political challenges facing major western powers including Brexit negotiations in Europe, and the shifting approach to international relations in the United States.

“The link between aviation and global macroeconomic conditions, however, remains strong, so a prolonged period of diplomatic and market instability could dampen the industry’s outlook for the near future.”

All three major global markets grew at a similar pace in May, with Asia-Pacific up by 6.3%, Europe by 6.2% and North America by 5.6%.

Asia-Pacific’s year-to-date numbers reached 8.2%, a slight slowdown from frequent double-digit growth in 2017.

The region’s passenger traffic figures showed higher disparity this month, with India, China and South Korea posting rises of 13.3%, 8.3% and 8.1% respectively, while Australia and Japan posted more subdued figures of 2.8% and 2.3% growth respectively.

Growth in Europe was almost entirely driven by international travel, which was up 7.6% year-on-year, compared to domestic growth of 2%.

ACI added that the current macroeconomic outlook for the US “remains mixed for the second half of the year, with the effects of recent tax cuts having run much of their course, and trade pressure crystallising its impact on a growing number of industries and the jobs they support”.

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