A ‘no deal’ Brexit would result in five million fewer outbound trips being made globally by 2022, according to a new study by Euromonitor International.
The market research company, which revealed the figures at this year’s World Travel Market, said Spain would be the biggest loser in tourism revenue if the UK does not secure a deal on Brexit for after the end of March 2019.
UK travellers account for around 21% of inbound revenues in Spain this year. If there is no deal on Brexit, the destination’s tourism incomes could reduce by around $747 million, around £573 million – of which the UK accounts for more than half.
At the Travel Leaders Speak – What to Expect in 2019 session, Euromonitor International head of travel Caroline Bremner said a delayed, freetrade agreement was considered the most likely Brexit outcome.
But a no deal situation was still a “strong possibility”, she added. In this case, all countries which rely on UK holidaymakers would be impacted.
She said: “The US, France, Portugal, they would all take a hit. If there is no deal, the pound will depreciate, it will be tougher to go abroad and more expensive so the customer levels (holidaymakers) would be lower. In the case of a no deal Brexit, we would expect a decline in the outbound market, picking up towards the mid-term.”
The company predicted a stagnation in departures over the next two years and a depreciation in the pound of about 10%, which would make the UK more attractive to overseas visitors.