The travel trade is facing two major obstacles next year, according to Hoseasons chief executive Richard Carrick.
Speaking at the Advantage conference in Heathrow at the weekend, Carrick said agents and operators will have to contend with a general election, possibly in May, and the 2010 football World Cup in South Africa in June and July.
With consumers in the past less likely to make bookings before either event, he said having both in the same year could become a major issue for a market already suffering in the recession.
He said: “It is going to be a tough year. People are distracted by [a general election], and with a World Cup you can’t get people off their sofas – they are going to stay in and watch it.”
Despite this, Carrick said he is confident Hoseasons will have a strong summer with sales for the season already 70% up on this time last year.
He said this is largely due to the economic climate. “People are looking very carefully at their own levels of personal debt and job security, and I don’t think there’s anyone in the room who hasn’t been affected.
TUI Travel distribution director Nick Longman predicted prices for next summer will rise by about 3% as the pound continues to fall against the euro.
He admitted the situation could have been worse. Longman said: “Any increase in the euro has pretty much been offset by a drop in [the price of] fuel.”
He said independent agents remained vital to TUI’s distribution strategy. “We need the support of third-party travel agents even with the largest retail network in the country.
“We have no plans to [only use] our own distribution network. If our customers want to book with third-party travel agents, we should let them do that.”
Sunvil Holidays managing director Noel Josephides said the operator had recently seen a 2% increase in agency bookings, a trend he expects to continue for the near future.
He was more concerned about fluctuations in currency than in oil, having hedged 80% of next year’s fuel needs at $64 a barrel.
Josephides said: “I’m quite comfortable with the level it is at, and I would rather know what I am paying now.”